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The unexpected rise in U.S. inflation triggered a swift reassessment of Federal Reserve policy expectations. After an initial market downturn, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies bounced back. This signals that investors may view inflation risks differently. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January 2025 overshot forecasts, delaying expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience marks a shift in how inflation affects digital assets. January’s CPI report showed a higher-than-expected inflation rate. Core CPI climbed 3.3% year-over-year, topping the predicted 3.1%. Overall CPI rose 3% annually, slightly above the forecast of 2.9% This prompted investors to adjust their outlook, moving the anticipated Fed rate cut from September to December. Initial market uncertainty gave way as Bitcoin recovered with traders realigning their positions. The CPI tracks price changes in a typical basket of goods and services, providing a monthly inflation measure. In contrast, the Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks wholesale price shifts before they reach consumers, offering additional clues for policymakers and traders. Related: Fed Hints at Smaller Rate Cut as Inflation Persists Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed inflation concerns in his semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He noted that while progress exists, inflation remains a stubborn issue. Powell stated that policy must stay tight for now, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach. The Fed’s report describes financial conditions as “somewhat restrictive,” with future decisions hinging on economic data. During an extended Q&A before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell took questions on inflation, interest rate paths, and economic forecasts. Lawmakers sought clarity on how upcoming U.S. policies might shape economic conditions. The latest labor market data, including a 143,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for January, underscore the Fed’s balancing act. Although below expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) raised previous NFP figures, pointing to a stronger labor market. Bitcoin, as of press time, trades at $96,229.94 , up 0.06% over the past 24 hours. Yet, it fell 2.51% over the past week. Related: Crypto Bulls or Bears? 4 Key US Reports Releasing This Week To Decide With 20 million BTC in circulation, Bitcoin’s market capitalization sits at $1.9 trillion. The CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that market players assign less than a 10% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

Fund management titan Franklin Templeton has launched its Franklin OnChain US Government Money Fund (FOBXX) on Solana. A SOL token called Benji (BENJI) representing shares in the fund has been deployed on the Solana network, the $1.6 trillion asset manager said in a Feb. 12 X post . The FOBXX fund invests almost 100% of its assets in US government securities, cash and fully collateralized repurchase agreements. Its total assets stood at $512 million as of Jan. 31. The launch of Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX on the Solana blockchain is part of the company’s mission to expand its “layer-1 footprint,” it said. This comes amid Solana’s growing presence in the institutional financial ecosystem. In addition to Solana, Franklin Templeton has already deployed its BENJI token on other major layer-1 blockchains Ethereum and Avalanche, as well as on layer-2 networks including Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, and Aptos. FOBXX is considered to be the first US mutual fund to tap blockchain technology for record-keeping and transaction processing. This is not Franklin Templeton’s first move related to the Solana ecosystem. On Feb. 10, the firm registered a trust in Delaware linked to a SOL ETF (exchange-traded fund). Other asset managers have also filed applications for similar investment products. Institutional investments in decentralized applications running on Solana rose 54% in the third quarter of 2024 to a total of $173 million. The increasing adoption of Solana by institutions could also benefit Solaxy (SOLX) , the first Solana layer-2 project. Currently in presale, it has already raised over $20.3 million as investors back the idea of a layer 2 project designed to help reduce congestion and increase efficiency on the Solana blockchain.

WEEKLY US SPOT ETF Flows: *BTC: +$200M *ETH: +$420M US BTC SPOT ETF Options: *Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Nominal): 2.04 *Total OI Call/Put Ratio(Delta): 3.05 Macro: *Tariffs: Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs this week. (He planned to hold a meeting on the issue Monday or Tuesday). Trump's focus is now expected to switch to the EU and possibly other countries. Investors have less dry powder to buy equities in the months ahead than they did the first time Trump took office. US Equity Risk Premium Is Lowest in Over Two Decades. We are in an environment of really high expectations in the third year of a bull market, whereas in 2017 we were coming out of a bear market. *Fed Chair Powell Testifies on 11 at 15 GMT *US CPI on 12 *Fed Chair Powell Testifies on 12 at 15 GMT *Fed’s Waller speaks on stablecoins on 12 at 22 GMT *US PPI on 13 ICYMI Trump: *Trump: we will be announcing on monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum coming into the us. *Trump: i'm committed to buying and owning gaza, may give sections to other states in the middle east to rebuild it. *Trump: maybe we have less debt than we thought (questions whether there is fraud related to us treasuries) Earnings: *Reddit, Robinhood on 12 *Coinbase on 13 What Bloomberg Economics Says: Chair Powell has said the Fed needs to see ‘real progress’ on inflation or some labor-market weakness to consider adjusting rates. We think January’s CPI will offer mixed evidence. We expect headline and core CPI inflation both rose 0.3%.

Author: Miles Deutscher Source: Miles Deutscher X account Translation: Shenchao TechFlow The 4-year cycle has come to an end. We are entering a new paradigm in cryptocurrency—survival of the fittest, elimination of the unfit. Here are my strategies for navigating market changes in 2025 to continue accumulating wealth in uncharted territory. Before sharing my strategies, let’s explore why the 4-year cycle has become a thing of the past. I believe there are two reasons why the 4-year cycle is no longer applicable. First, from the supply side, the halving effect of Bitcoin ($BTC) is gradually diminishing. With each halving, the reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins is becoming smaller. For example, the halvings in 2012 and 2016 saw reductions of 50% and 25% in issuance, respectively, which had a significant impact on market prices. However, by 2024, the reduction in issuance due to halving is only 6.25%. This means that the price-driving effect of halving is no longer as strong as before. Second, from the demand side, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is a significant variable that has permanently changed the market rules. Bitcoin ETFs are financial instruments that allow investors in traditional financial markets to invest in Bitcoin indirectly. Since their launch, they have become the most successful ETF products in history, with demand far exceeding expectations. This influx of demand has not only changed the overall landscape of the crypto market but has also broken many old market rules (such as the 4-year cycle). The greatest impact of ETFs is reflected in the altcoin market. Let me elaborate. In the past, you might have often seen a chart showing the price rotation relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins. This was indeed valid in 2021. But now, this relationship has broken down. (The original image is from Miles Deutscher , compiled by Shenchao TechFlow) In 2017 and 2021, when Bitcoin prices rose, many wealthy Bitcoin whales would transfer profits into altcoins on centralized exchanges (CEX), thus driving the prosperity of the altcoin market. However, now most new funds are entering the market through Bitcoin ETFs, and these funds are not flowing into the altcoin market. In other words, the way funds flow has fundamentally changed, and altcoins no longer benefit from the wealth effect of Bitcoin. Retail investors have directly flocked to high-risk speculative projects on-chain, known as "on-chain casino games" (Pump Fun). Compared to 2021, the number of retail investors in this cycle has significantly decreased. This is mainly due to the pressures of the macroeconomic environment and the fact that many suffered heavy losses in the last cycle due to events like LUNA, FTX, BlockFi, and Voyager. However, those retail players who remain in the market have directly skipped mainstream coins and chosen to seek opportunities on-chain. You can read my detailed analysis of how this phenomenon affects the market here . If my judgment is correct, meaning that cycle theory is no longer applicable, what changes can we expect in the future market? I have one piece of bad news and one piece of good news to share. The bad news is: It has become harder to "lie flat and make money." This is a natural signal of the industry's gradual maturation. In fact, there are now more trading opportunities in the market, but if you continue to use strategies from 2021—such as holding a bunch of altcoins and quietly waiting for the "altcoin season" to arrive—you may be disappointed or even perform poorly. The good news is: Since there is no longer a so-called four-year cycle, this also means that prolonged bear markets triggered by specific factors in cryptocurrency will no longer occur. Of course, from a macroeconomic perspective, long-term bear markets are still possible, as cryptocurrencies do not operate in isolation, and their correlation with the macroeconomy is now tighter than ever. The market's "risk appetite periods" and "risk aversion periods" are more likely to be driven by changes in macroeconomic conditions. These changes often trigger short-term mini echo bubbles, rather than sustained months of one-sided upward trends. The so-called echo bubbles refer to short-term market rebounds brought about by changes in the macro environment, which, while smaller in scale, share similarities with past large bubbles. In these bubbles, there are plenty of opportunities to make money. For example, in 2024, we witnessed rotations of different hot spots: November was the meme craze, December was the AI concept, and January was for AI agents. Undoubtedly, new trends will emerge next. If you are sharp enough, these are excellent opportunities to make money, but they require a strategy that is slightly different from past cycles. A few days ago, I had dinner with @gametheorizing , who made a very insightful point. Many people are pursuing an ultimate goal: whether it's to multiply their portfolio by 5, 10, or even 20 times. But in fact, a better strategy is to focus on multiple small bets rather than going all-in. By continuously accumulating a series of small victories, the long-term returns from this approach may be greater. Therefore, instead of betting everything and hoping for the altcoin season to quickly double your assets, try to accumulate wealth through the compounding effect of time. Specifically, you can adopt the following strategy: Small bets > Take profits, re-bet > Take profits again, repeat. This is also why many top traders and thinkers in the crypto space (like Jordi) were once professional poker players. They learned to view each trade through the lens of probability, assessing possible outcomes rather than betting blindly. My portfolio is currently allocated as follows: 50% invested in high-conviction assets with long-term potential, and 50% in stablecoins and active trading. I will use this portion of funds to seek short-term opportunities in the market, entering and exiting flexibly. Additionally, I use stablecoins as a benchmark for measuring the success or failure of trades. Each time I exit a trade, I convert profits back into stablecoins, allowing me to clearly see my earnings. If your cryptocurrency portfolio is too diversified and you don't know how to respond to current market changes, last week I shared a guide that explains how to optimize your portfolio based on market changes. In this article, I emphasized a key point: the importance of setting "invalidation" standards for each trade. Just like when you decide to buy a certain cryptocurrency, you need a clear reason to validate your choice. "Invalidation" refers to the criteria for exiting a trade promptly when market conditions no longer meet your expectations. I have noticed that many people enter trades without basic risk management awareness and without setting clear exit criteria. This often leads to unnecessary losses. If you are looking for a suggestion that can significantly enhance your future profitability, it is this: Establish clear technical or fundamental "invalidation" standards for each trade. This will not only help you manage risk better but also improve the overall efficiency of your trades. Of course, your confidence level in a trade and the expected holding period may influence how you set "invalidation" standards or trigger conditions. But regardless, this does not change the fact that you need to plan ahead. Having a clear exit plan is one of the keys to successful trading. Although the current market may not fully adhere to past cyclical patterns, I remain optimistic about the future. As long as you maintain the right mindset and strategy, 2025 still holds great potential for growth. Currently, we are in a bear market phase, but market trends will eventually change, bringing many new opportunities. Before that, your primary goal is to survive. The returns in the cryptocurrency market often belong to those who can endure through extreme volatility. No matter how the market fluctuates, patience and resilience are the keys to ultimate success.

$PEPE At the time of writing, the popular memecoin PEPE was in the news after it formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern – A well-known bullish reversal structure signaling a potential price surge. In fact, the left and right shoulders highlighted higher lows, indicating increasing buying momentum, while the head represented the lowest point in the pattern. The price seemed to have broken through the $0.00001 neckline, confirming bullish strength. Based on the measured move from the breakout, PEPE may now be targeting the $0.000012 resistance level – Representing a potential price hike of 23% if momentum continues. PEPE’s price action, at press time, seemed to be testing key support and resistance levels that could dictate its next movement. The immediate resistance stood at $0.000012 – A level where previous selling pressure has emerged. If PEPE closes above this level, further gains could follow. On the downside, the support zone was at $0.000008, which previously acted as a strong buying region. If the price pulls back, $0.0000095 may serve as an intermediate support level before testing lower levels. Hence, traders are monitoring whether PEPE will sustain its breakout or face short-term corrections before another upward move. Data from IntoTheBlock shows underlined fluctuating activity from large PEPE holders. The 7-day whale accumulation trend fell by -45.77% – Hinting at a recent decline in buying pressure from major investors. However, the 30-day accumulation rose by +103.64%, alluding to strong buying activity last month. The 90-day trend, however, had a reading of -155.09%, pointing to a long-term decline in large holder positions. What this meant was that while short-term accumulation has been on the rise, long-term whales may be offloading positions too. The next move in PEPE’s price will likely depend on whether large holders continue accumulating or begin selling again. Finally, the Addresses Stats chart pointed to a drop in network participation, which could affect liquidity and demand. The 7-day New Addresses metric (NA) fell by -31.72%, meaning fewer new investors are entering the market. Additionally, Active Addresses (AA) declined by -50.72% – A sign of reduced transaction activity. The Zero Balance Addresses (ZBA) metric also dropped by -63.73% – A sign of low wallet movement and lower selling pressure. With memecoin speculation on the rise, many are questioning whether PEPE’s breakout will lead to a new rally or face resistance at higher levels. At this point, it’s a waiting game for the memecoin’s investors.