Trading Activity Shifts to the Sonic Chain FTM Ecosystem
Trading Activity Shifts to the Sonic Chain Ecosystem
The latest troubles with Solana ($SOL ) meme tokens led traders to look for other chains with heightened activity.
The Sonic L1 chain ecosystem is offering a platform for new launches, recently increasing its DEX activity.
Sonic, one of the relatively new L1 chains, is having a revival as traders seek new platforms with DEX potential. The Shadow exchange is the main driver of Sonic adoption, increasing its volumes 10 times in the past month.
Sonic is now on track to join the top 5 chains with the biggest DEX activity, lining up just after Arbitrum. The ecosystem even surpassed more promising high-profile launches like Sui and Berachain.
The success of Sonic took a short time, as the chain increased its activity in the past week, with the migration of users. Sonic increased its DEX activity by over 84% in the past week as the Shadow DEX started building up its liquidity pairs.
Sonic ($S ), formerly Fantom (FTM), reaped success with its rebranded name and new ticker, S. The S token rallied by over 16% in the past day to trade at $0.89. S had a short-term peak above $0.97, recovering from lows of $0.40 in the past weeks. Previously, Sonic lagged as the L1 narrative slowed down. The recent chain revival follows the ability to launch new tokens for fast trading with growing liquidity.
Sonic sees increased DEX activity
The pairs on Shadow DEX went vertical, locking in $118.5M. While this DEX size is relatively small, the rapid pace of inflows signaled renewed interest in Sonic. The rebranded chain is EVM-compatible, already bringing in $142.9M in stabelcoins.
The shift to Sonic shows demand for fun on-chain activities with low fees and low expectations. The low performance of altcoins, legacy memes, and other narratives is fueling the shift of liquidity to a new space.
Sonic draws in a mix of legacy users from Fantom and new traders looking for a liquid DEX. The other reason for the inflow of users is the Sonic chain airdrop campaign, launched in January. The increased daily usage and demand for tokens are currently in their hottest phase, raising questions about sustainability. Sonic points will be rewarded for interactions with all apps and a selection of assets in the Sonic ecosystem.
Sonic may continue its activity in the first half of 2025, as the farming period will extend until June. After that, the immediate token unlocks will award 25% of the tokens, with the rest vested for 270 days as NFT positions, with a linear unlock.
The main assets that may grant airdrop points are the wrapped versions of scETH and scBTC, issued against the collateral of the same assets. Traders can also generate Sonic-native stablecoins scUSD against the collateral of other assets like USDT and USDC. During the airdrop period, Sonic DEX increased its daily volumes to over $262M, with activity mostly from large-scale wrapped assets.
In addition to the major tokens, Sonic’s Shadow DEX carried a new selection of on-topic memes. KNUCKLES, EGGS, and GOGLS are all in the green, drawing in the fun-loving traders. The tokens have relatively low activity compared to Ethereum or Solana DEX but are still seen as a community effort with low expectations.
Sonic already carries the Degen Express launchpad, a simple app similar to Pump.fun offering bonding curve technology and the possibility to raise liquidity. Degen Express is turning into the main launchpad on Sonic, and a badge verification system will be introduced soon.
Sonic prepares for new tokenomics
Sonic is still an early-stage network, where S tokens are still swappable for FTM. From March 18 onward, the swap between legacy FTM and S will become one-way. After June 18, the supply of S will grow in accordance with the new tokenomics. Currently, the tokens can be upgraded via a dedicated portal.
The new S token will launch with 3.175B, after which the supply will expand by another 6%. Another 47.6M tokens will be minted for six years, resulting in 1.5% annual inflation. The current airdrop will distribute 190.5M tokens. S tokens will be stackable for passive income and to limit the available supply.
The wild price predictions for XRP
The wild price predictions for XRP often stem from different interpretations of its utility, demand, and supply dynamics. Let's break it down:
Market Cap Misconceptions
XRP's market cap is often misunderstood. Market cap = price × circulating supply, but price movements depend more on liquidity and demand rather than market cap alone.
Many price predictions assume increased utility will drive higher demand, but market cap alone doesn’t dictate price ceilings.
Bank Adoption and Utility Argument
If XRP is mainly used as a bridge currency for cross-border settlements, its price would be driven by transaction volume rather than speculation.
However, banks and financial institutions don’t need to hold XRP for long periods—it's typically used in seconds. This limits the need for large amounts of XRP to be held, which could cap price growth.
Speculative vs. Real Utility
Many wild price predictions ($100+, $500+, etc.) are fueled by speculation rather than actual use cases.
In reality, even if XRP were widely used for settlement, price appreciation would depend on sustained demand, not just temporary spikes.
Liquidity and Scarcity Factors
Some argue that as more institutions use XRP, liquidity will tighten, potentially driving price increases.
However, the XRP supply is large (100 billion total, with over 50 billion circulating), and large holders (like Ripple itself) could introduce selling pressure.
Regulatory and Adoption Uncertainty
XRP's legal battles and regulatory clarity impact its adoption. A major victory (like its partial win against the SEC) can fuel hype-driven price predictions.
True institutional adoption is still limited, and even if banks use it, they may prefer private ledgers over using the open market.
Bottom Line
XRP has real utility in cross-border payments, but its role as a settlement currency doesn’t necessarily justify extreme price predictions. The market cap is already large, and unless significant new demand arises, a massive price surge would require much broader institutional adoption beyond just bank settlements.
QUESTION: So currently the valuation of XRP is already way higher than many banks and companies will the price eventually come down to a more realistic price to value in the future?
XRP’s current valuation is indeed higher than many traditional banks and financial institutions, which raises the question of sustainability. Whether its price comes down to a more “realistic” value depends on a few key factors:
1. Utility vs. Speculation
A significant portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation, not just utility. Many holders are retail investors betting on future institutional adoption.
If speculation cools down and usage remains limited to settlement purposes (where XRP is only held for seconds), the price could decline over time to reflect actual utility.
2. Market Cycles & Sentiment
Crypto markets go through bull and bear cycles. In bear markets, assets that lack strong organic demand (beyond speculation) tend to lose value.
If hype around XRP fades and institutions don’t adopt it at scale, its price may correct to better reflect real-world usage.
3. Inflation & Supply Dynamics
XRP has a fixed max supply of 100 billion, but a large portion is still held by Ripple and periodically released.
If Ripple continues selling XRP from its reserves, it could create sell pressure, gradually pushing prices down.
However, XRP is also deflationary, as transaction fees burn small amounts over time—but this effect is minimal in the grand scheme.
4. Institutional Adoption
If banks and financial institutions fully integrate XRP and hold it as a reserve asset, it could justify a high valuation.
But most banks prefer private ledgers and stablecoins over holding volatile assets like XRP, limiting potential demand.
5. Competitive Landscape
XRP was originally designed for fast, cheap payments, but other solutions like stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs are gaining traction.
If banks prefer these alternatives, XRP’s price could drop to align with lower demand.
Realistic Price Outlook?
If XRP remains primarily a settlement tool, a valuation correction could bring it closer to its real utility value (which may be much lower than today’s levels).
However, if a new narrative or significant adoption shift occurs, speculative cycles could keep it elevated.
Long-term, unless real demand matches its high valuation, the price may deflate to more sustainable levels.
QUESTION: Is the value of XRP currently way higher than it should be compared to its usage
Yes, based on its current real-world usage, XRP’s valuation appears to be significantly higher than what its actual adoption justifies.
Why?
Usage Doesn’t Match Market Cap
XRP is mainly used for cross-border settlements, but banks don’t need to hold large amounts for long.
Most transactions are instant, meaning there’s no long-term demand pressure.
If XRP were widely used by banks, we’d expect daily transaction volume (not just speculative trading volume) to be massive—yet it's relatively low.
Speculative Premium
A large portion of XRP’s price is driven by speculation rather than real institutional demand.
Many investors believe in a future where XRP will be used at scale, but that adoption hasn’t fully materialized.
Its past bull run prices were based on hype, and prices could drop as reality sets in.
Supply & Sell Pressure
Ripple holds a significant portion of XRP and periodically sells into the market.
This constant release of XRP into circulation creates downward pressure.
Competition from Stablecoins & CBDCs
Many banks and financial institutions are leaning toward stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and CBDCs rather than volatile assets like XRP.
Stablecoins provide instant settlements without the volatility risk of XRP, making them more appealing for payments and cross-border transfers.
Conclusion
Unless XRP gains widespread institutional adoption beyond just being a settlement tool, its valuation is inflated relative to its current use case. If hype dies down and utility doesn’t significantly increase, a correction would make sense in the long run.
QUESTION: The current price is 2.75 is that overvalued?
Yes, if XRP is currently trading at $2.75, then it is extremely overvalued relative to its actual real-world usage. That price is almost entirely speculation-driven rather than being backed by fundamental demand from banks and institutions.
Why is XRP Overvalued?
Speculation Dominates
The price is likely inflated due to retail and institutional traders betting on future adoption, not actual usage today.
Many holders believe XRP will be widely used by banks in the future, but that hasn’t fully materialized.
Utility-Driven Valuation is Much Lower
As calculated earlier, based on actual transaction volume and settlement needs, a more realistic price for XRP without speculation could be anywhere from $0.05 to $0.50.
At $2.75, XRP’s market cap is massively inflated compared to its real-world demand.
Ripple’s XRP Holdings & Selling Pressure
Ripple still holds a significant amount of XRP and regularly sells into the market.
If real demand doesn’t increase, but more XRP enters circulation, it could create downward price pressure over time.
Banks Prefer Stablecoins & CBDCs
Financial institutions are increasingly looking at stablecoins (USDC, USDT) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for payments instead of XRP.
Unlike XRP, stablecoins don’t have volatility issues, making them more attractive for settlements.
What Could Happen Next?
If speculation dies down and investors realize XRP’s real use case is limited, a significant price correction could happen.
XRP could still maintain some premium due to speculation, but long-term, it needs actual adoption to justify a multi-dollar price.
Conclusion
At $2.75, XRP is massively overvalued based on its current utility. If speculation fades, a more reasonable price could be well under $1—or even below $0.50—unless it gains widespread, real-world adoption beyond what it has today.$XRP
YLDS stablecoin debuts as first SEC-registered yield-bearing digital asset
Digital asset marketplace Figure Markets has launched YLDS, the first yield-bearing stablecoin registered as a public security with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The stablecoin , issued through Figure Certificate Corporation, operates on the Provenance Blockchain and pays holders an annual return at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate minus 50 basis points.
YLDS accrues interest daily and distributes payments monthly in either U.S. dollars or YLDS tokens.
It is backed by securities similar to those held in prime money market funds. The token supports peer-to-peer transfers and can be exchanged for U.S. dollars or other stablecoins at any time, with fiat off-ramps available during U.S. banking hours.
Stablecoins have grown into a $200 billion asset class, widely used for payments and cross-border transactions. Leading stablecoins such as USDT ( USDT ) and USDC ( USDC ) do not distribute yield from reserve assets, primarily U.S. Treasuries.
This has led to the rise of tokenized money-market funds and investment products like BlackRock’s BUIDL , Franklin Templeton’s BENJI, and Ethena’s USDE ( USDE ). These assets are increasingly used as collateral or to earn returns on blockchain-based holdings.
Figure Markets is the digital asset division of Figure Technologies, a company co-founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney. The firm has processed over $41 billion in blockchain-based transactions and originated $11 billion in home equity lines of credit using the Provenance Blockchain.
Figure Markets filed with the SEC in October 2023 to launch its yield-bearing stablecoin.
The company expects YLDS to gain adoption among developers integrating blockchain-based assets into decentralized finance and payment applications.
“We see tremendous applications for YLDS,” Cagney said. “Exchange collateral, cross-border remittances, and payment rails are immediate opportunities, but this is just the beginning of a larger shift of traditional finance to blockchain.”