Bitcoin: Retail Is Back... But Through The Door Of ETFs

Bitcoin is sulking. It refuses to repeat its old shows, snubs its past peaks, and coldly disregards new records. It is acting like a diva, mired in a lethargy that leaves traders puzzled. But while everyone is scrutinizing the blockchain closely for signs of an impending bull run, a much quieter truth is surfacing: small investors are already there… but in stealth mode, hidden behind ETFs.

Bitcoin: the grand theater of ETFs has already begun

Are analysts who scrutinize the chain like a crystal ball being outsmarted by their own tool? Ki Young Ju, the boss of CryptoQuant — the one who recently announced the beginning of the altcoin season , thinks so. According to him, “the absence of retail on-chain activity means nothing anymore.” Small investors, far from having deserted, have simply slipped through the backdoor of ETFs .

These financial vehicles, certainly more regulated, do not appear in the usual on-chain indicators, but concentrate almost 80% of the incoming flows on Bitcoin ETFs spot.

“Retail is already participating, but on the paper layer,” Ju says, talking about these new investment paths, invisible to the old market barometers.

Incoming and outgoing flows of Bitcoin spot ETFs – Source: Farside

In short, those who are still waiting for a rush from individuals to jump into BTC trading might miss the train. The game has changed, and so have the rules. And yesterday’s star indicators — Fear & Greed Index, Google Trends, or popularity of crypto apps — are losing their edge. Moreover:

• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 31 (fear zone);
• Google searches for “crypto” have dropped by 62% since January;
• Bitcoin remains down 22% from its last ATH.

The weak signals are there, but what do they really say? Should the manual of the perfect crypto-trader be rewritten?

BTC trading, between faded hopes and evaporated liquidity

The current market fresco resembles a poorly hung cubist painting: a bit of volume here, some ETFs there, and above all… a serious lack of inspiration. Or rather, a lack of liquidity. For Ki Young Ju, the signal is clear: the bull cycle is over .

This is not a full-blown crash, but rather a long horizontal tunnel. Translation: between 6 and 12 months of waiting before a new all-time high.

The most worrying thing? The absence of new sources of capital. Three consecutive weeks of negative flows on ETFs, and significant volumes that have not been enough to break the resistance around $100,000. A bad sign for traders accustomed to riding the wave of new entrants.

I’m not going to short BTC, but I’m not going to sell hope either.

In an uncertain macro climate, without an injection of fresh capital, even the boldest eventually put away their charts.

When will the whales return? Will the rates drop enough to revive the crypto market? And above all, will the next rise really come from individuals, or from another even more unexpected player?

In conclusion, let’s remember that Bitcoin is going through an unprecedented crisis , according to Glassnode. A period of famine where the lack of fresh capital prevents any real surge. The bull run seems well tucked away in the closet… for now.