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This article will review Ethereum's recent performance, provide an in-depth analysis of the current bullish and bearish factors facing Ethereum, and look ahead to its prospects and trends for the end of this year, next year, and the medium to long term. The aim is to help ordinary investors clarify uncertainties, grasp trends, and provide some reference to support more rational decision-making during key turning points.
In Brief Bitcoin rebounded over the weekend, testing the $86,000 mark. Privacy-focused altcoins Monero and Zcash showed notable gains. Total market value surged, crossing the $3 trillion threshold again.
In Brief Crypto markets rebounded amid significant liquidations and oversold RSI signals. Weekend trading conditions with thin liquidity influenced rapid price shifts. The rebound's sustainability remains uncertain, prompting scrutinous investor attention.
Narratives and sentiment can create myths, but fundamentals determine how far those myths can go.
- 01:04Analysis: The extreme narrative of an "AI bubble" bursting in the short term is unlikely to materializeChainCatcher News, a research report by CITIC Securities stated that the decline in the US stock market on November 20 was mainly driven by macro factors, rather than a panic sell-off triggered by the bursting of the AI bubble. The main reason for this correction was the combination of unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data in September and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, which prompted profit-taking in the market. Coupled with signs of weakening in the US labor market, the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting may become the peak of the current "hawkish panic" sentiment, after which the market's main focus may shift to the contest over Trump's nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman. The fundamentals of the AI sector remain solid. With token exponential growth, ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, and the four major tech giants maintaining strong cash flows and balance sheets, the extreme narrative of an imminent "AI bubble" burst is unlikely to materialize in the short term.
- 01:04The Federal Reserve is about to enter a blackout period, institutions maintain their expectations for a rate cut in December.ChainCatcher News, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that New York Federal Reserve President Williams hinted at a further rate cut in December, reversing market expectations for a rate cut. Currently, the market believes there is a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The Federal Reserve will enter a blackout period starting November 29. Before the blackout period, Powell has no scheduled public speeches or media interviews, so the remarks from his "close ally" Williams may be the last statement from a Federal Reserve official to influence market expectations. Continuing the previous view, it is expected that December may see a "close call" rate cut of 25bps. For the market, the reversal of rate cut expectations, combined with the advancement of the "28-point" plan and news that the Trump administration is considering allowing the export of H200 chips to China, means that macro factors will no longer be a source of market pressure in the short term. The market may focus more on issues such as AI companies issuing bonds and the trends in cryptocurrency.
- 01:04Data: A highly leveraged whale went 25x long on 4,685 ETH, with a liquidation price of $2,628.69According to ChainCatcher, OnchainLens monitoring shows that address “0x184” deposited 1 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 25x leveraged ETH long position. The entry price was $2,799.01, with a liquidation price of $2,628.69, and the position size reached 4,685 ETH. Previously, this address had traded SOL and earned over $100,000 from it.