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News on March 10, RealVision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts stated that a weak dollar could potentially strengthen Bitcoin, but there are two key indicators that may cause concern in the short term. Although my framework is becoming bullish with the plummeting of the dollar, two indicators still raise alarms: U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads. Coutts describes Bitcoin as a game between central banks around the world; despite these worrying indicators, overall it still presents a cautiously optimistic outlook. The MOVE Index measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. Coutts observed that although the MOVE index currently remains stable, it shows an upward trend. An increase in treasury volatility could lead to further tightening of liquidity while at the same time corporate bond spreads have been widening for three consecutive weeks. A significant reversal in corporate bond spreads usually coincides with Bitcoin prices peaking. Coutts concluded that overall these indicators send negative signals for Bitcoin. However, depreciation of the dollar - one of its largest monthly depreciations over past 12 years - remains a major driving force within my framework.

JPMorgan Chase Securities has raised its year-end forecast for the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds from 1.55% at the end of January to 1.7%, citing potential risks from U.S. policy. It predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in June and December, but actions possibly taken by the United States could complicate matters; if tariffs put pressure on global economic growth, it may hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, but if Japan is accused of devaluing the yen, it may hastily raise interest rates, wrote Takashi Yamawaki, head of fixed income research and strategist Hiroki Yamamoto in a report on March 10th. The correlation between ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields and Bank of Japan policy rates may disappear; after raising interest rates to over 1%, long-term government bond yields may fluctuate sideways. JPMorgan also raised its year-end forecasts for yields on Japanese government bonds with maturities of 20 years and 30 years respectively from 2.15% and 2.40% to 2.35% and 2.65%.