CashCowの‌価格COW

BTC retraced to the price range of 103000-104000, many copycats retraced about 10%, the panic and greed index returned to the median of 50, and there was another wail in the market. Why do you say that when the market comes, it is numb? It seems that everyone's heart disease is on the cottage. In fact, today's price is about the same as the price a week ago, especially ETH, the representative of altcoins, the support level of 2450-2550 is quite hard, and ETF funds continue to flow in. Now if we hold a copycat, we don't need to pay too much attention to our own currency for the time being, and if we are doing long-term currency holding, it is useless to pay attention now. If you want to see it, just look at ETH, ETH can hold up, and there will be hope for the copycat in our hands. After browsing through the analyses of various analysts on the short-term trend of BTC, most believe that the pullback will continue to deepen. Those seeing a range of 101000-102000 account for 60%, while those seeing 92000-93000 account for 30%, and a few have predicted around 88000. Personally, I think this situation is still normal, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. This high-level pullback was something that could be anticipated. As of 4 PM today, the quarterly options for BTC and ETH have been settled, and currently, the short positions in the market are 1.3 times that of the long positions. Considering the current trend of BTC.D's market cap ratio, I believe the probability of a short-term rebound for BTC is somewhat higher. Tomorrow we will close the monthly line, and this round of rising has indeed entered the final stage. When BTC enters a large range of sideways fluctuations, the main forces generally start to allocate funds to valuable alts at this time. I believe that the experience of May has already given everyone a preview of the future market trends, as BTC broke through its previous high without warning, and ETH also performed relatively independently. However, 80% of the altcoins without market heat and liquidity remain stagnant, having dropped 90% of their market value compared to the high of December 2024. This confirms last year's judgment about this bull market, returning to value, the strong remain strong. Yesterday's dynamics explored a problem, that is, the psychological torture of copycat positions, especially when the price comes to this position, how to choose has become a psychological barrier for most people, and this feeling of gain and loss is like a mountain pressing on the hearts of retail investors. In fact, I would like to understand a question, have retail investors' copycat holdings been decreasing? However, from the perspective of ordinary people, it is difficult to form systematic and accurate data on the position of retail investors. Judging from what I learned from the dynamic comment area, there should be a lot of people who were full before March 25, including myself. But since the end of April, retail investors' positions have begun to slowly decrease in the rise of BTC, and most of my friends have begun to reduce their positions, replacing them with U waiting for the next round of drawdown, and even some friends think that a bear market is coming. That's why I said yesterday that this bull market feels weird. As we enter 2025, more and more people believe the rumors of a lack of an altcoin season bull market. The faith and confidence in holding coins have gradually faded amid multiple uncertainties, leading to the relinquishment of their holdings during repeated fluctuations and unrest. Based on past experiences, I have always believed that any bear market occurs when retail investors are generally experiencing FOMO, but currently, the situation of FOMO is not happening. Therefore, at this stage, we will not immediately enter a bear market. On the data sources we have access to, the holdings of retail investors cannot be specifically measured by numbers, but the whales of various altcoins must be able to see it. You might as well ask the people around you; if everyone reduces their positions, controls their holdings, and goes to cash, the upcoming market will be more optimistic instead. When most of us feel that a bear market is coming and believe that the market is likely to fall, it is unlikely to actually fall. In summary, returning to my own position, I personally suggest reducing long-term spot positions, which can be defensive and allow for high selling. However, during a pullback, we really need to maintain confidence in being bullish. Even if you choose to reduce your position and hold USDT while waiting for a significant pullback, it is still best to keep a certain position and be well-prepared to avoid missing out. If you sell and wait for a pullback, and then an unexpected rally occurs again, that would mean saying goodbye to more than a year of perseverance. This point in time is indeed the best time for bookmakers and retail investors to fight their psychology. Personally, it is recommended not to try to prepare for a long-term bear market, you can rush high and bearish in operation, but be cautious to bet short. For the comment section to inquire about the specific month of the drawdown. I don't have the ability to answer this kind of question, because the current global liquidity does not have the conditions for a bull market, even if there is the so-called good news of the Trump family, Vice President Vance came forward to call out the order and other events that were unimaginable before, the market is also correcting and falling. But the plunge and surge in a short period of time is indeed a signal for the start of the oxtail, and it is difficult to buy a cow to turn back, and the most afraid is that it will suddenly start, and you are not in the car. As we enter June, my personal stance on my holdings is not to blindly predict a bullish rise, but I also cannot completely remain inflexible. For large-position coins, I will continue to hold and wait without making any adjustments. For small-position coins, I will choose to cut losses and wait for a good entry point. Since we cannot predict the future, we can only manage our positions well. Any breakthrough may occur under panic emotions. Perhaps today you see ETH at 2450, and in two or three days it could become 3000. This situation has certainly happened before and will definitely happen at any time in the future. Wishing you a healthy Dragon Boat Festival and a happy holiday☕#BTC行情分析##成长值抽奖，赢 iPhone 16 和精美周边#

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