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QCP: Long-term sentiment in the crypto market is becoming more positive, and Bitcoin may continue to move sideways in the near term QCP said in a post that after a week of tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilize, shaking off barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-US trade. The United States imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, and China hit back with 125%, escalating the two sides to the point where the market is no longer surprised by further increases. The huge scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven, in stark contrast to the panic caused in the early days of "Liberation Day". After the close of Friday, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest tariffs. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the United States seems to be negotiating not only with China, but also with the bond market and itself. In the crypto market, Bitcoin risk reversals still favor put options until June, indicating that the market is still slightly cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 lots of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range and may continue to move sideways, adopting a “wait and see” strategy to see how the tariff situation develops.

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Japan's 20-Year Government Bond Yield rises to 2.435%, the highest level since 2004

With the U.S. economy sending mixed signals, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate action seem set. According to crowd-sourced predictions from Polymarket , there’s a 76% chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the May 7 meeting. Among those pushing for an easing of monetary policy are President Donald Trump and investor Arthur Hayes, both arguing that lower rates could stimulate a slowing economy. However, the Fed appears committed to caution, prioritizing stability over reactionary moves. The Polymarket data, drawn from over $20 million in traded volume, reveals a strong consensus among traders. Most believe the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rate levels. The price for a “Yes” bet on no change currently trades at 76¢, reflecting strong market confidence in that scenario. Related: ‘Fed on the Clock’: Hayes Links Bond Market Stress to Coming Bitcoin Gains Besides the dominant expectation of no movement, the next most likely scenario is a modest 25 basis point cut. This possibility carries a 21% chance, with traders buying “Yes” at 21¢ and “No” at 80¢. While not the front-runner, this outcome has attracted speculative interest, especially during moments of economic uncertainty. Significantly, the chance of a deeper cut 50 basis points or more remains extremely slim. It holds just a 4% probability, suggesting that market participants believe the Fed will avoid aggressive shifts. Related: How a Potential Fed Shift to QE Could Impact Your Crypto Portfolio (Analysis) Meanwhile, the odds of a rate hike are practically nonexistent. With a likelihood of less than 1%, the market is nearly unanimous in ruling out an increase. A closer look at trading patterns since January shows the “no change” scenario steadily dominating. This option has hovered near or above 80% at several points, indicating growing market confidence in the Fed’s steady-hand approach. Meanwhile, the 25 basis point cut option has shown more volatility. It has experienced occasional spikes, likely in response to economic data releases or public statements. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

Opinion: Chaos in the U.S. bond market may force the Fed to intervene, which may prompt some investors to turn to Bitcoin JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is preparing for chaos in the nearly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, which plays a central role in global finance, setting the tone for everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond yields, and the Federal Reserve will only act if "they start to panic a little bit." Jamie Dimon warned that if the financial system is paralyzed again, the consequences could spread throughout the economy. Turmoil in the U.S. Treasury market that leads to Fed intervention could prompt some investors to turn to Bitcoin (BTC), which is often seen as a hedge against currency instability, which seemed to be the case in 2020, when the Fed's aggressive stimulus measures sent Bitcoin prices soaring. (CoinDesk)