Follow the Money: Tracking the US Government’s Confiscated Crypto Stash
The U.S. government has moved approximately 97.3 Bitcoin (BTC), valued around $8.46 million at the time, from a wallet holding previously confiscated funds .
Blockchain intelligence platform Arkham identified the transfer occurring from a wallet associated with funds seized from Wanpadet Sae Heng.
The movement of these assets primarily into a new government-controlled wallet immediately fueled speculation about the formation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US, although officials have not provided an official explanation for the transfer.
The transferred Bitcoin originated from assets seized during an operation targeting Sae Heng, who was allegedly involved in a fraudulent “pig butchering” scheme. Reports indicate U.S. authorities worked in coordination with Binance to confiscate various cryptocurrencies from Heng during that operation.
Arkham’s on-chain data shows this specific recent transfer sent the bulk of the BTC (worth ~$8.46M) to a newly created ‘change’ address (bc1q7qf). A minimal fraction, about $10 worth of BTC, went to a separate new address (bc1qs0q). Concurrent with the Bitcoin move, approximately 88.4 Ethereum (ETH) (with a reported value near $1.77M at the time) was also transferred from the same source wallet to a different new address (“0xBf7fb”).
Related: Senator Cynthia Lummis Pushes for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
This Bitcoin transfer isn’t an isolated incident regarding government-managed crypto wallets. Just weeks ago, according to Arkham, the same address reportedly moved 299 Avalanche (AVAX) tokens linked to funds seized in a separate case involving Brain Krewson.
Such on-chain movements continue to raise questions about the government’s evolving strategy for managing its considerable cryptocurrency holdings obtained through various enforcement actions. Despite this recent transfer, the U.S. government remains the largest known sovereign holder of Bitcoin, possessing approximately 198,012 BTC currently valued near $17.04 billion (based on recent BTC price levels near $87k).
The lack of official comment on these transfers allows speculation about a potential strategic US Bitcoin reserve to continue. Discussions persist around how such a reserve might be funded, with some suggesting “budget-neutral” mechanisms could be employed, perhaps using existing confiscated assets.
While Senator Bernie Moreno has advocated for Congress’s proposal to be passed before August, its appeal has yet to be fully assessed.
Related: Trump’s Push to Make U.S. the Crypto Capital Gains Momentum
Globally, the US’s known Bitcoin holdings significantly exceed those of other nations reportedly holding Bitcoin, such as China (often estimated second), Bhutan (approx. 9k BTC reported), and El Salvador (approx. 6k BTC reported).
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Peter Brandt Predicts Bitcoin Could Plummet to $70,000!
Published on March 28, 2025, at 8:06 PM WIB, this report highlights a stark warning from veteran trader Peter Brandt, who forecasts a potential drop in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price to $70,000. As Bitcoin hovers above $87,000 today, with the total crypto market cap nearing $3 trillion, Brandt’s bearish outlook contrasts sharply with the current market optimism. Here’s a closer look at his analysis and its implications.
Brandt’s Bearish Forecast
Peter Brandt, a seasoned market analyst with over 50 years of trading experience, shared his latest prediction on X earlier today, aligning with a Wyckoff analysis that targets a Bitcoin decline to $70,000. Known for his accurate calls like pinpointing Bitcoin’s 2018 crash Brandt bases this forecast on technical patterns suggesting a correction is imminent. He points to a “distribution phase” in Bitcoin’s chart, a hallmark of the Wyckoff method, indicating that the asset may be gearing up for a significant pullback.
Currently trading at around $87,000-$88,000, Bitcoin would need to shed approximately 20% to hit Brandt’s $70,000 target. This comes after a volatile week where BTC briefly dipped below $85,000 before recovering, driven by Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) $584 million BTC purchase and broader market resilience.
Why $70,000?
Brandt’s analysis hinges on several observations:
Wyckoff Distribution: He identifies a classic topping pattern, suggesting that smart money is offloading positions ahead of a downturn. Posts on X from Brandt and others note a “sell-off signal” as Bitcoin struggles to break past recent highs.
Overbought Conditions: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 70, a level often associated with overextension, hinting at a cooling-off period.
Market Sentiment Shift: Despite institutional buying like Strategy’s 506,137 BTC stash Brandt warns that speculative fervor could give way to profit-taking, especially if macroeconomic factors sour.
This isn’t Brandt’s first bearish call. Earlier this month, he suggested Bitcoin could crash to $20,000 if the Nasdaq enters a bear market, a scenario he ties to broader economic turbulence. However, his $70,000 prediction is framed as a more immediate risk.
Contrasting Views
Brandt’s outlook clashes with bullish forecasts from figures like Michael Saylor, who envisions a $200 trillion Bitcoin market cap, and Arthur Hayes, who sees $70,000 as a worst-case bottom rather than a target. The crypto community on X is divided some users back Brandt’s technical prowess, while others argue that ETF inflows and a pro-crypto SEC nominee like Paul Atkins will keep BTC buoyant.
Analysts note that a drop to $70,000 would test key support levels, potentially triggering a 2% market cap dip as altcoins follow suit. Yet, with BlackRock’s European Bitcoin ETP launch and GameStop’s BTC reserve plan, the bullish narrative remains strong.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Less than two hours after this article’s release at 8:06 PM WIB, Bitcoin holds steady above $87,000 as of 10:21 PM WIB. Brandt’s $70,000 call introduces uncertainty into an otherwise upbeat market. Will this be a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders react, or will institutional momentum defy the bearish chart? The coming days could prove pivotal, with the April 11 SEC roundtable on crypto trading regulation looming as a potential catalyst.
For now, Brandt’s warning adds a layer of caution to the crypto rally. Whether Bitcoin plunges to $70,000 or shrugs off the prediction, the market’s next move will test the resilience of its current highs.
#BTC
XRP Price Predictions 2025-2030: Bitwise Unveils Bold Forecasts!
Published on March 28, 2025, at 8:06 PM WIB, this report explores the latest price predictions for Ripple (XRP) from Bitwise Invest, a prominent crypto asset management firm. As XRP continues to gain traction following its legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitwise’s projections for 2025 to 2030 offer a mix of cautious and ambitious scenarios. With the crypto market thriving Bitcoin above $87,000 and a total market cap nearing $3 trillion here’s what Bitwise foresees for XRP’s future.
Bitwise’s Valuation Model
Bitwise’s analysis, shared this week, leverages a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)-inspired approach, factoring in regulatory developments, market volatility, and XRP’s adoption potential. As of today, XRP trades around $2.40-$2.50, buoyed by a 10% surge earlier this month after the SEC dropped its appeal on March 19. Bitwise’s projections span three scenarios for 2030, with interim targets for 2025:
Bear Case: $0.13 by 2030 (2025: $1.50-$1.80)
Assumes regulatory setbacks, limited adoption, and a saturated altcoin market, driving XRP to a fraction of its current value.
Bull Case: $12.68 by 2030 (2025: $3.99-$5.81)
Envisions widespread institutional uptake, an XRP ETF approval (82% odds per Polymarket), and Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin boosting ecosystem demand.
Max Case: $29.32 by 2030 (2025: $6.00-$10.00)
A best-case scenario where XRP becomes a cornerstone of global payments, fueled by a U.S. Strategic Reserve proposal and mass adoption.
Key Drivers for 2025-2030
Bitwise highlights four catalysts that could shape XRP’s trajectory:
Regulatory Clarity: The SEC’s retreat has already lifted XRP’s market cap past $135 billion, and a pro-crypto SEC under potential chair Paul Atkins could further propel growth.
Institutional Momentum: BlackRock and Fidelity are rumored to be eyeing XRP ETF filings, with a 41% chance of approval by July 31, 2025, per Polymarket data.
Ecosystem Expansion: The RLUSD stablecoin and tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could enhance utility, driving demand.
Market Trends: A sustained bull market, with Bitcoin potentially hitting $150,000, might amplify XRP’s gains, though competition from Ethereum and Solana poses risks.
2025: A Pivotal Year
For 2025, Bitwise predicts XRP could range from $1.50 (bearish) to $10.00 (max), with the bull case of $3.99-$5.81 seen as most plausible if current trends hold. Analyst Vandell Aljarrah of Black Swan Capitalist echoes this optimism, forecasting a double-digit price this year, citing XRP’s 550% surge from November 2024 to January 2025 as precedent. However, a failure to break resistance at $2.56-$2.65 could stall progress, with support at $2.17-$2.25 as a fallback.
2030: Boom or Bust?
By 2030, Bitwise’s bull case of $12.68 aligns with Ripple’s vision of XRP as a global payment bridge, potentially rivaling traditional systems like SWIFT. The max case of $29.32 hinges on speculative factors like a U.S. reserve adoption, though the bear case of $0.13 warns of stagnation if regulatory or competitive pressures mount. Posts on X reflect this divide, with some users touting “$29 as conservative” while others see “$0.13 as a reality check.”
What’s Next for XRP?
With whale accumulation up and technicals showing a bullish flag, XRP’s short-term outlook leans positive. Yet, its long-term fate depends on execution will Ripple capitalize on its legal win and ecosystem bets, or falter amid altcoin rivalry? As of 10:18 PM WIB today, less than two hours after publication, the crypto community is abuzz. Bitwise’s forecasts offer a roadmap, but in a market this dynamic, only time will reveal XRP’s true path.