Analyst says Apple’s plan to move US iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic

Top analyst Craig Moffett has said that Apple’s plan to move its United States iPhone assembly to India is unrealistic. According to Moffett, the plan to shift things to India is unlikely to resolve the complex challenges posed by the United States’ tariffs.

According to previous reports , Apple announced plans to shift the assembly of iPhones sold in the United States to India by the end of 2026. The move, according to the Financial Times, will help the tech firm reduce its dependency on China, as the country continues its policy standoff with the Trump administration. Sources mentioned that the company intends to manufacture 60 million iPhones in India, doubling the current output.

Trump’s current 145% tariff on imports coming from China has dealt a heavy blow to global supply chains, forcing most companies to reconsider their decades-old production models. Moffett, a senior managing director at MoffettNathanson, has emphasized that Apple’s supply chain is rooted in China, making it hard for the company to make the shift.

Analyst says Apple’s India move is unrealistic

According to Moffett, one of the reasons why the move remains unrealistic is that most of the components used in manufacturing the devices are made in the country. He also added that the move will mean that many cost-saving measures that the company is enjoying will be removed by relocating.

Despite Apple’s plan to move, which was reported by the Financial Times, Moffett believes that the shift would only relieve the company of tariff-related pressures. He added that tariffs create dual challenges, and moving to India will not solve both issues. “The bottom line is a global trade war is a two-front battle, impacting costs and sales. Moving assembly to India might (and we emphasize might) help with the former. The latter may ultimately be the bigger issue,” he said.

Moffett’s analysis, which he shared with clients, discusses the complexities of global trade. He mentioned that even if Apple manages to shift assembly to India, the reliance on Chinese components will still open up the company to tariffs, which could inflate costs that will be passed down to eventual consumers.

The concerns have also been deepened by United States carriers like AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and T-Mobile (TMUS), who have said they will not absorb tariff-driven price increases on phones.

Moffett warns about demand destruction

Moffett warned that since the carriers are refusing to absorb the tariff-driven price increases on devices, it could lead to demand destruction. He also mentioned that it could lead to consumers extending device holding periods and slowing upgrade rates, which could lead to Apple’s earning estimates taking a beating. His outlook shows wider macroeconomic pressures, including a drop in consumer demand, which could further affect Apple’s market performance.

The analyst has revised his price target for Apple, showing his bearish stance. He cut the target from $184 to $141, showing a drop of 33% from Friday’s $209 per share close. Moffett has maintained a “Sell” rating on Apple since January 7, and the stock has fallen 14% since then. Apple’s stock showed strength last week, gaining more than 6% ahead of its quarterly earnings report scheduled for next Thursday after market close.

Moffett remains cautious, noting that the company’s challenges are not rooted in its operations but in external factors that most companies don’t have control over. The interplay of supply chain constraints, tariffs, and shifting consumer behavior in a global economy impacted by tariffs could redefine the company’s growth trajectory, making Moffett’s warnings a very important lens for investors dealing with the company’s future.

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