Standard Chartered sees bitcoin as a hedge against tariff risks amid 'US isolationism'

Bitcoin could benefit from rising tariff risks as signs of "U.S. isolationism" begin to shape market sentiment, according to Standard Chartered.

"There is a lot of noise at the moment, but as per my Friday email, I think bitcoin will become a hedge against tariff risks this time around," Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a Sunday note. "U.S. isolationism is akin to increased risks of holding fiat, which will ultimately benefit bitcoin," he added.

The note followed bitcoin's drop below $80,000 over the weekend. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,000.

Kendrick pointed to $76,500 — the top of the Nov. 6 daily candle, formed the day after the U.S. election — as a key support level. He acknowledged the market drawdown but noted that bitcoin continues to outperform most of the so-called Magnificent Seven or Mag7 tech stocks, trailing only Microsoft and Google since tariff-related headlines earlier this week.

Mag7 index + bitcoin and ether percentage change since tariff announcement

Source: Standard Chartered

In last week's note, Kendrick said bitcoin could be viewed as a "U.S. isolation" hedge and called bitcoin the "strongman," noting it had held up better than most tech stocks during the recent selloff.

The updated framing — from a general "U.S. isolation" hedge to a more specific "tariff risk" hedge — reflects Kendrick's interpretation of recent developments. He added that the recent crypto selloff would likely fade and that bitcoin could return to its Friday close of around $84,000, barring any broader risk-off moves in traditional markets.

Kendrick has been among the more bullish voices on bitcoin, previously forecasting a price target of $200,000 by the end of 2025. He sees bitcoin reaching $300,000 by end-2026, $400,000 by end-2027, and $500,000 by end-2028 — a level he expects it to hold through 2029.

Last week, Kendrick also initiated coverage on Layer 1 blockchain Avalanche, projecting that its native token AVAX could rise more than 10 times to $250 by the end of 2029 from its current price of around $15. The forecast was driven by Avalanche's recent Etna upgrade, which made the network cheaper and more attractive for developers.

Kendrick is less bullish on Ethereum, having cut his 2025 ether price target by 60% last month to $4,000, citing factors such as Base's growing market share. Ether is currently trading at around $1,500, down more than 15% over the past 24 hours.