BTC Price Risks $62K Breakdown As Bulls Retreat

BTC Price Slips as Gold Rallies, Traders Eye Deeper Correction

Bitcoin (BTC) price lost bullish momentum this week, falling 7% from a high of $88,060 on March 26 to $82,036 by March 29.

That move wiped out $158 million in long liquidations, highlighting fragility in spot and derivatives markets.

Meanwhile, gold surged to a record $3,087 on March 28, adding pressure to Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.

The decoupling between Bitcoin and traditional hedges triggered concerns among market participants.

Koroush AK, a trader and researcher, said Bitcoin formed another lower high—the sixth in 2025—describing the recent rally as a “dead cat bounce.”

He noted Bitcoin failed to close above $90,000 for five consecutive days. he posted on March 28,

“Price failed to reach $90K this week after trying for 5 days in a row.”

Long-term Holders Remain Sidelined as Inflows Dry Up

On-chain metrics support the bearish tone. Data from CryptoQuant shows long-term holders have paused accumulation since Nov. 2024.

Ali, a market analyst, flagged this on Mar. 30, warning that a reactivation of these wallets may indicate a shift in market direction.

According to Ali,

“Long-term #Bitcoin $BTC holders have been on pause since November 2024…Their return could mark a major trend shift.”

At the same time, exchange inflows are declining, suggesting reduced investor participation. Ali said lower inflows typically precede large price moves but did not predict direction.

Analysts Highlight Bearish Targets as Macro Outlook Worsens For BTC Price

Altcoin Sherpa described the current structure on the weekly chart as a confirmed bear market. The price could fall to the $50,000–$60,000 zone depending on how macroeconomic conditions evolve.

Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

The analyst noted, in an update on March 29,

“We see periods of chop but still a bearish trend.”

Crypto Capo outlined a similar outlook, stating that BTC price remains at risk of falling to $62,000.

In his view, a close below the $84,000–$85,000 range would likely trigger capitulation toward April and Nov. 2024 support levels.

ETF Outflows, Inflation Data Compound Selling Pressure

On March 28, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $93 million in net outflows.

The timing coincided with rising fears of a recession and delayed rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 50% chance of interest rates dropping below 4% by July 30, up from 46% a month earlier.

While easing could help risk assets, recent ETF flows suggest large players remain cautious.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) dropped to 104 from 107.4 a month prior. Despite this, Bitcoin failed to capitalize, diverging from the historical pattern where a weaker dollar boosts crypto.

Liquidity Hopes Emerge, But Bulls Stay Quiet

Mihaimihale, a market commentator on X, said the U.S. government may introduce tax cuts and lower interest rates to offset slowing growth.

However, he added that last year’s expansion was largely driven by government spending—something unlikely to repeat.

He posted,

“Kickstarting the economy now needs real liquidity, not policy optics.”

Still, some see room for recovery if central banks shift policy. Alexandre Vasarhelyi, founding partner at B2V Crypto, said Bitcoin remains in its adoption phase and that volatility reflects early-stage growth. He said,

“Whether Bitcoin’s floor is $77,000 or $65,000 matters little…2025 is still a foundation year, not a tipping point.”

Bitcoin price failed push past $90K, combined with inactive long-term holders and rising macro pressure, raises the odds of a breakdown.

While traders eye $62K as the next major support, any renewed buying from long-term holders or central bank dovishness could change that outlook.