ETH Plunges 42% in Q1 2025 – Recovery or Further Decline?

• Ethereum’s Q1 2025 saw a -42.47% drop, its worst since 2018, falling below $1,800.
• Some analysts see a buying opportunity, while others warn of ETH’s weak performance.
• Historically, Q2 is Ethereum’s strongest quarter, which has averaged a +66.84% return.

Ethereum’s first-quarter performance in 2025 has triggered intense discussion across the cryptocurrency community. This is because the second-largest digital asset by market capitalization recorded a staggering -42.47% decline during this quarter. According to data from Coinglass, this marks ETH’s worst Q1 performance since 2018, when the token plummeted -46.61% during the same period.

The downturn has pushed Ethereum below the $1,800 level for the first time since 2023. Over the past decade, Ethereum has averaged a +77.73% return in first quarters, with particularly notable growth in years like 2017 (+518.14%) and 2021 (+160.7%).

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader sees opportunity in the current price levels, noting: “Ethereum is back in the zone that built millionaires in 2017 and 2020. If history repeats, $ETH will make legends once again.” This perspective frames the current downturn as a potential entry point similar to previous cycles that generated good returns for early buyers.

However, not all analysts share this optimistic view. Crypto Bullet highlighted the lack of price appreciation over an extended timeframe: “If you bought $ETH in February 2021 and held it for 1500 days, you can sell it right now for the same price. The analyst mentioned that there has been no action for over 4 years. More bearish sentiment comes from analyst Books, who mentioned Ethereum’s price action as potentially systemic. He mentioned that Ethereum looks like it is in trouble and it is not good for the whole of crypto.

Looking at historical quarterly performance patterns offers mixed signals. While 2025’s Q1 represents one of Ethereum’s worst first quarters, the token has shown resilience following previous downturns. Crypto Banter noted: “Q1 isn’t looking great for $ETH… If it closes this low, it will be the lowest Q1 close since 2018. However, the last time Ethereum closed this low in Q1, it was followed by a 15.29% increase.”

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The Coinglass data reveals other interesting patterns in Ethereum’s quarterly performance. The second quarter has historically been Ethereum’s strongest, with an average return of +66.84% and even better performances in 2017 (+453.71%). Third quarters have shown the most inconsistent results, averaging just +0.88% with major variance between years. Fourth quarters have generally delivered positive returns, averaging +23.85%.

As the second quarter of 2025 begins, market participants will be watching closely to see if Ethereum can maintain its historical pattern of Q2 outperformance. With Q2 representing Ethereum’s strongest quarter on average, some analysts suggest the potential for mean reversion could create favorable conditions for a recovery.

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