40% US recession risk could sink Bitcoin below $80K

A 40% chance of a US recession in 2025 poses significant risks for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) potentially facing further downside, according to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

Puckrin cited macroeconomic uncertainty driven by trade tensions and federal spending cuts as key factors increasing recession odds.

"Trump and his advisors have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible," he told an interviewer.

Bitcoin has already fallen 24% from its January high of $109,000, trading near $82,600 amid fears of prolonged trade wars and economic instability.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply in March 2025 as investors shifted capital to European markets, reflecting declining confidence in US economic policies.

President Donald Trump's tariffs on trading partners have heightened market volatility, pushing crypto sentiment into "extreme fear" territory.

Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted crypto markets may remain pressured until April 2025, depending on tariff negotiations.

"If countries negotiate an end to tariffs or the administration softens its stance, markets will recover," Sondergaard added.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen suggested Bitcoin may have formed a price bottom in March, citing Trump's recent softer rhetoric on trade.

Puckrin expects two 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 but no quantitative easing, limiting potential stimulus for risk assets like crypto.

The Trump administration's budget-balancing efforts, including federal job and spending cuts, could inadvertently trigger a recession, further impacting crypto markets.

Bitcoin's struggle to hold above its 200-day exponential moving average signals weakened technical momentum amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Analysts caution that sustained trade tensions or a confirmed recession could push Bitcoin below $80,000, testing critical support levels.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin price was $82,626.76.