Could Bitcoin & Ethereum Face a Challenging Q1 Without a Major Uptick?

Key Points

• Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a decrease in retail adoption, with network activity slowing down.
• The second quarter could signal the start of a more significant correction cycle.

The number of unique wallets and active addresses associated with Bitcoin [BTC] has slowed down, especially those with balances over $1, since the post-2020 bull cycle.

This stagnation matches the adoption curve model, indicating that institutional accumulation has led to the consolidation of BTC into fewer high-value wallets.

Shift in Crypto Adoption

This means that large-scale entities, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), have concentrated their holdings, reducing the need for a wide distribution of wallets. Consequently, the wider distribution among retail participants has decreased.

Ethereum [ETH] has followed this trend, recording its lowest adoption rate in 2025. As institutional dominance increases, on-chain metrics may become less reliable for evaluating retail adoption in the future.

The market implications of this structural shift could be significant. Institutional wallets are increasingly influencing liquidity cycles. For example, Bitcoin’s sharp decline to $77k in February directly correlated with sustained BTC ETF outflows.

Market Volatility and Future Predictions

On February 25th, BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.4 billion, triggering a 5.11% price drop within 24 hours. Ethereum ETFs have similarly remained in a persistent sell-side phase, struggling to attract new inflows.

More importantly, these institutional outflows have coincided with Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, adding a macroeconomic layer to crypto market volatility.

As the second quarter unfolds, the administration appears to be in full “reset” mode. The failure of Bitcoin and Ethereum to replicate their Q1 rally raises the question: Will the second quarter bring a bleak bearish cycle?

In the last two weeks, Bitcoin has reclaimed $88k as BTC ETFs returned to net inflows. MSTR capitalized on this momentum, accumulating 6,911 BTC for $584 million at an average acquisition price of $86k.

Ethereum followed suit, briefly retesting $2k. However, its prolonged consolidation, coupled with declining network adoption and subdued institutional inflows, suggests underlying structural weakness.

If BTC encounters resistance and retraces, ETH’s price action could be vulnerable to a deeper corrective phase.

Weak fundamentals and selective accumulation by high-value wallets could act as a headwind for both Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Q2 rally.

Historically, BTC’s Q1 strength has triggered an altcoin surge, yet this cycle’s price action has diverged. The key differentiator? Heightened macroeconomic volatility.

If institutional capital inflows fail to offset this volatility in the upcoming quarter, both Bitcoin and Ethereum may face distribution pressure and delay a full-scale trend continuation.