Analysis: Multiple key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment for Bitcoin may have already ended

According to a ChainCatcher message reported by Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin recently falling 30% from its historical high of $109,350 to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11th, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.

Firstly, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. In the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days. The current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback in June 2024. To truly enter a bear market requires at least a drop of 40%, which has not yet been reached.

Secondly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from an early-2025 level of 109.2 down to104; contrasting sharply with dollar strength during the late-2021 bear market period. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically shows inverse correlation with DXY and therefore current dollar weakness could help stabilize Bitcoin prices.

Thirdly, derivatives market data show healthy signs: Despite prices falling by19% between March2nd and11th , annualized premiums for bitcoin futures remained at4 .5%, far above negative premium levels seen during June's bear-market phase in2022 . Meanwhile perpetual contract funding rates are close to zero indicating balanced demand for long/short leverage without excessive shorting typical in a bearish phase.

Fourthly major concerns center around potential U.S government shutdown on March15th and bubble risks within AI sector Several listed companies each worth over$150 billion have significantly pulled back including Tesla(-54%), Nvidia(-34%)and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment spread led to short-term adjustments in bitcoin price

In addition there are early warning signals emerging within US real estate markets potentially accelerating capital flows into scarce assets Analysts believe factors such as dollar weakness, historical data showing 30% price adjustments are insufficient to determine a bear market, resilience in the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility due to government shutdown risks and signs of crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to $90,000.

Currently Bitcoin has rebounded from its low point Market participants are closely watching progress on US government debt ceiling negotiations. There is disagreement within Republican Party over defense and immigration spending If an agreement is reached it could trigger positive response across risk asset markets including bitcoin.