Key Notes
- The 19b-4 filing represents the second step in the SEC's process of evaluating whether the XRP ETF meets investor protection standards.
- Bloomberg analysts estimate 65% approval probability, while Polymarket predictions show 78% chance of approval by December 2025.
- XRP price broke out of a multi-year consolidation pattern as institutional demand increases and regulatory outlook improves.
On February 18, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged the filing by Cboe BZX Exchange to list and trade shares of Bitwise XRP ETF. According to the filing, interested persons can submit a written statement on whether the proposed rule change is in accordance with the law within the next 21 days of the publication.
The 19b-4 filing for the Bitwise XRP ETF is the second step in the process of either approving or declining the proposed rule change to list the crypto product. Furthermore, the US SEC will scrutinize the proposed rule change to ensure the XRP product adheres to the investor’s protection measure, including preventing fraud and market manipulation.
The US SEC implied that XRP is not a security and should be considered a commodity, akin to Bitcoin BTC $96 446 24h volatility: 0.8% Market cap: $1.91 T Vol. 24h: $38.31 B and Ethereum ETH $2 735 24h volatility: 1.4% Market cap: $329.81 B Vol. 24h: $21.24 B . Furthermore, the US SEC noted that the Bitwise XTR ETF applicant does not have any affiliation with Ripple Labs.
“In light of these factors and consistent with applicable legal precedents, particularly as applied in SEC vs Ripple Labs, the sponsor believes that it is applying the proper legal standards in making a good faith determination that it believes that XRP is not under these circumstances a security under federal law in light of the uncertainties inherent in applying the Howey and Reves test,” the filing noted .
XRP ETF Approval in the Pipeline
According to Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, there is a 65 percent chance that the US SEC will approve spot XRP ETF soon. On Polymarket , a leading prediction platform, there is a 78 percent chance that the US SEC will approve spot XRP ETF by December 31, 2025.
Previously, the US SEC acknowledged the spot XRP ETF filings from 21Shares and Grayscale Investment. However, the agency has yet to acknowledge the spot XRP ETF filing by Canary Capital and WisdomTree.
According to Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple Labs, the approval of spot XRP ETF is imminent in the near future.
The message from the market is clear – institutional interest in XRP products is stronger than ever. @BitwiseInvest , @CanaryFunds , and @21Shares (just this morning!) filed S-1s for XRP ETFs while @Grayscale launched an XRP Trust and filed to convert its multi-asset fund,… https://t.co/d5Icksw4Sj
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) November 1, 2024
Market Impact
The rising demand for Ripple products by institutional investors has helped the XRP price gain bullish momentum in the past two quarters. After consolidating in a multi-year triangular pattern since 2018, XRP $2.58 24h volatility: 0.7% Market cap: $149.00 B Vol. 24h: $4.25 B price broke out late last year, catalyzed by the changing regulatory outlook in the US and rising demand from institutional investors around the world.
With Ripple Labs committed to developing the XRPL network to handle multi-chain DeFi protocols, the XRP price is well-positioned to grow exponentially in the coming years. Moreover, the Donald Trump administration is keen to tap into blockchain technology to revamp the US economy.
The hype on the imminent approval of spot XRP ETF could, however, turn out to be a sell-the-news scenario akin to Ethereum and Grayscale’s ETHE ETF.
nextDisclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
