Glassnode: bitcoin's current bull market is similar in character to 2015-2018, with a current market cap gain of 2.1x and a peak of 5.7x in the last cycle

On January 30th, the current bitcoin bull market is showing several structural similarities to the 2015-2018 cycle, according to a new research report from Glassnode. The key takeaways from the report are below:

In terms of cycle similarities and retracement characteristics, the current bitcoin bull market shows significant structural similarities to the 2015-2018 cycle, with retracements mainly between 10.1% and 23.6% Fibonacci levels, a stable retracement pattern that may reflect strong demand support in the current market.

In terms of real market capitalization growth trends, the current cycle's Realized Cap growth of 2.1x is lower than the previous cycle's peak of 5.7x, but is consistent with the 2015-2018 cycle at the same stage and the market has yet to enter a phase of exponential growth, implying that there may still be room for further expansion.

In terms of the size of the capital rotation, around 1.2 million bitcoins have been transferred from long-term to short-term holders since December 2023, with 1.1 million of these transfers completed when the price exceeded $90,000, representing a significant inflow of demand to absorb this supply when the price exceeded $90,000.1 The market is still in a state of flux, and the market is still in a state of flux, as it has been for some time.

In terms of changes in exchange balances, exchange balances fell to 2.7 million BTC from 3.1 million BTC in July 2024, but this decline was largely due to the migration of supply to ETF wallets rather than a large number of withdrawals by individual investors, and the total balance on exchanges and ETFs was maintained at approximately 3 million BTC, suggesting that this is a shift in market structure rather than a shortage of supply.