2025 Halving Outlook: How to Avoid the Bear Trap and Capture AI Coin Alpha?

Original Article Title: Thoughts on Post-Halving Year 2025
Original Article Author: arndxt xo, plumenetwork Researcher
Original Article Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article analyzes the latest developments in Bitcoin and the crypto market. The early-year short trap led to a Bitcoin price correction, while macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and the rise in the US dollar index intensified market uncertainty. AI coins experienced a significant correction, but emerging AI coins such as ANON, AVA, PIPPIN showed strong performance. Meme coin FARTCOIN also attracted attention and, despite a pullback, has the potential to become a market leader. Coins like XRP benefited from Ripple's relationship with the US government, showing outstanding performance.

The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for readability):

Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin performance in halving years.

2017 and 2021 Cycles: Bitcoin dropped in January and then resumed its upward trend in February. 2025 Prediction: If history repeats itself, we may see a similar uptrend this year. In the coming months, speculation about Bitcoin-related executive orders is brewing. Although unconfirmed, such events have historically had a significant impact on the market.

Industry Overview

1. Infrastructure and Interoperability

Reduce network tribalism through cross-chain connections.

We are witnessing an acceleration in cross-chain development—projects like Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with integrated Stargate) are rolling out solutions to enhance the efficiency of asset transfers and data sharing. LayerZero is expanding its influence, allowing applications on Superposition to tap into liquidity from over 100 connected chains. Meanwhile, Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to enable users to pay gas fees in stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, significantly streamlining the user onboarding process.

My take: This underscores the continued push for frictionless interoperability. Being able to seamlessly transfer assets and data across chains (L1 → L2 → L3) is rapidly becoming a fundamental requirement. Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas fee abstractions, and universal bridging are poised to reduce the "network tribalism" that has historically hindered DeFi adoption. More standardization and potentially more professional L3 rollouts tailored for unique verticals (e.g., gaming, RWA, institutional DeFi) are expected.

2. Liquidity, Lending, and Real-World Assets

The Holy Grail of the Credit and Lending Ecosystem.

What Happened:

· Coinbase launched BTC-backed loans for U.S. users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage their Bitcoin.

· Tradable integrated with ZKsync, bringing $1.7 billion worth of Real-World Asset (RWA) collateral to the network, showcasing how institutional-grade products are further penetrating DeFi.

· plumenetwork has tokenized over $4.5 billion in assets, achieved a $64 million TVL before the network even launched, and introduced a $25 million RWAfi Ecosystem Fund.

My Take: The blurred boundary between CeFi and DeFi is a prime example of this industry maturing. Coinbase's foray into crypto lending demonstrates centralized exchanges willing to offer products typically associated with DeFi platforms—potentially cannibalizing DeFi's direct user base but also validating on-chain lending as a key financial tool. Furthermore, RWA integration remains the "Holy Grail," linking traditional finance with on-chain liquidity. If this trend persists, DeFi could see stronger yields, deeper liquidity, and increased institutional trust, although regulatory oversight could also tighten.

3. Liquid Staking and Synthetic Bitcoin

Innovations in Staking Mechanisms.

What Happened:

· babylonlabs.io introduced YBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed liquid staking token, which has been integrated with pSTAKE.

· BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ plan, bundling multi-chain strategies and an AI agent (ConsoleKit) for automated DeFi operations.

My Take: Liquid staking has proven to be a means of unlocking additional rewards for stakers without sacrificing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade freely. This "dual yield" approach—earning staking rewards while potentially gaining DeFi yields—is likely to continue accelerating. However, there are inherent risks: the more times assets are "liquidly staked," the deeper the system's complexity. Protocols must remain transparent and undergo thorough audits to prevent hidden leverage from destabilizing the system's integrity.

4. Ecosystem Expansion and Strategic Partnerships

Significant user adoption efforts and enterprise collaborations.

What Happened:
· Polygon Labs partnered with India's largest telecom company, Reliance Jio (with 450 million users), to integrate blockchain solutions into the Jio app.

· Ledger integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop, enhancing the user experience for hardware wallet enthusiasts.

Abstract prepared for its mainnet, hinting at a wave of new cross-chain products coming soon.

5. Airdrops, Incentives, and Liquidity Mining

User adoption battleground.
What Happened:

· Projects like Scroll, Quai Network, Fuel, Bubblemaps, and many others are launching airdrops or continuing reward seasons, each with its own community participation criteria.

· Protocols like Vertex (2.1M SEI tokens) and Derive (offering 2 million DRV tokens to liquidity providers) continue to incentivize user participation, while Nodepay and Solayer offer pre-claim processes or public sales with instant TGE distribution.

My Take: Airdrops have proven to be an effective means of paving the way for an initial user base, but they are also becoming a "must-have" competitive strategy for new protocols. With so many projects offering incentives, user fatigue could become an issue. The key for projects is to provide real utility rather than relying solely on "incentive chasing." Over time, protocols need to balance incentives with sustainable tokenomics. The ideal state is to attract new users through rewards while providing them with real product value to retain them.

Narrative Overview

BTC Price Trends and Macroeconomic Impacts

The first Monday of the year marked a significant short squeeze, with Bitcoin surging after the New York market opening, Coinbase trading at a premium, leading many to believe it was the start of a bull market cycle. However, this proved to be a false signal as BTC stalled the next day and saw a steep decline, dragging down other altcoins with it.

Key Macroeconomic Factors Driving Uncertainty

·Inflation Concern: The strong Labor Market data on January 10th (NFP Report) hinted at potential inflationary pressure, which could lead to a reduced expectation of rate cuts — a bearish signal for the stock market and cryptocurrency.

·US Dollar Index (DXY): Reached a new high of 110.

·10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose from 4.6% to 4.8% (YTD).

·SP 500 Index: Retested pre-election prices.

AI Agent Coin: Correction and Opportunity

The AI Agent coins that have recently dominated market attention have experienced significant corrections:

·VIRTUAL: Plunged -57% from a peak of $52 billion. AI16Z: Dropped -63% from a peak of $25 billion.

·ZEREBRO: Fell -73% from a peak of $8.2 billion.

·FAI: Slid from a peak of $6.5 billion to $5 billion.

·AIXBT: Despite the market weakness, still near its all-time high.

·GOAT: Declined -55% but still shows weak performance.

Emerging Winners

New AI coins are starting to gain attention, including:

ANON: Rose from $20 million to $240 million.

AVA: Increased from $60 million to $300 million.

PIPPIN: Grew from $15 million to $320 million.

Meme Coins: FARTCOIN and Others

FARTCOIN

This meme coin, somewhat related to the AI narrative, experienced a -56% pullback but rebounded by +75% from its low point. It is considered a potential market leader, with speculation that its market cap could reach $50 billion or higher.

BUTTHOLE and LLM

BUTTHOLE: Peaked at a high of $140 million but then experienced a -70% downturn.

LLM: Linked to AI, once reached $150 million but later went through a -75% pullback.

XRP Leading the Token

XRP

Outperforming the market, it has risen by 6% year-to-date. Ripple's relationship with the upcoming U.S. government and CEO Brad Garlinghouse's connections to key political figures have fueled bullish sentiment.

Other strong performers in this category include:

HBAR

XLM

ADA

Other Significant Trends

Strong Performing Coins

SPX: Surpassed a $1 billion market cap, reaching $1.6 billion, but has now declined by -30%.

GIGA: Nearly hit $1 billion but faced resistance, dropping by -30%.

SUI: Reached a new all-time high ($54 billion FDV) and only dropped by -13%.

Newly Launched Coins

BIO: Launched as the first major DeSci protocol with a $30 billion FDV, but has now dropped by -55%.

GRASS: Showing strength after weeks of volatile trading.

USUAL: Controversy over USD0++ redemption changes led to a -66% drop from its all-time high.

Exercise Caution

FTM: Trading contracts delisted, potentially presenting a second chance but facing significant migration issues.

RUNE: Facing risks associated with ThorFi lending, reminiscent of LUNA.

Animal meme coins: POPCAT, WIF, and NEIRO are the worst-performing coins year-to-date, with POPCAT dropping by -73% from its all-time high.

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