Dogecoin Crashes as Bearish Signals Strengthen, But Could an ETF Change Everything?

Dogecoin (DOGE), the largest memecoin by market capitalization, has broken below a critical uptrend line, signaling the possible end of its five-month rally.

This drop comes as technical indicators flash bearish, while at the same time, Bitwise Asset Management has filed for a Dogecoin ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bearish momentum gains strength

After rallying to $0.48 in December, DOGE has now fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is a key indicator in technical analysis. A failure to stay above this level suggests the end of an uptrend.

Additional bearish signals include:

• MACD histogram printing deeper bars below the zero line, confirming strengthening bearish momentum.
• 5-day and 10-day moving averages trending downward, pointing to a continued decline.
• Support levels at $0.26 and $0.234, which mark key retracement points from DOGE’s August-December rally.

To reverse this negative trend, DOGE must reclaim the December uptrend line. Otherwise, a deeper drop could be ahead.

Bitwise pushes for a Dogecoin ETF, will it change the narrative?

Amid the market downturn, Bitwise Asset Management officially filed for a Dogecoin ETF on January 28, following a similar filing by Rex Shares last week. If approved, this would mark a major milestone for DOGE’s institutional adoption.

Notably, Bitwise’s ETF is filed under the Securities Act of 1933, meaning it would be physically backed, holding actual Dogecoin rather than derivatives. This sets it apart from other ETF structures that do not require direct ownership of the asset.

• Coinbase Custody has been proposed as the custodian for the ETF.
• The filing does not yet specify fees, the ticker symbol, or the stock exchange where it would be listed.
• Following the announcement, Polymarket betting odds for DOGE ETF approval surged to 56%.

What’s next for Dogecoin?

The combination of technical weakness and ETF speculation creates a highly uncertain environment for DOGE. If the bearish trend continues, DOGE could test lower supports at $0.26 or $0.234. However, if ETF approval gains traction, renewed bullish sentiment could push prices higher.

For now, traders and investors are watching both technical levels and regulatory developments closely.