With no announcement yet from the incoming Trump administration, crypto users are speculating who the Republican will nominate as the next chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, one of the crucial regulators for digital assets.

As of Nov. 18, President-elect Donald Trump had not announced a potential pick to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom he promised to fire “on day one” after taking office on Jan. 20. Gensler, nominated by US President Joe Biden and confirmed by the Senate in 2021, has not said he would voluntarily step down as SEC chair for the incoming administration. 

According to the prediction platform Kalshi, the majority of users speculated that Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance and corporate affairs officer, would take the reins from Gensler starting in January. However, roughly 14% of users bet on former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and 11% on former acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks.

Speculation looms over SEC leadership under Trump as rhetoric escalates image 0

Source: Kalshi

It’s unclear whether Gensler intends to resign as SEC chair and leave the commission entirely or test Trump’s authority by having the president-elect fire him before his term ends in June 2026. Many legal experts are divided on whether the Republican can remove Gensler from the SEC if push comes to shove.

Related: SEC chair doubles down on crypto stance under threat of Trump ousting

In addition to a potential new SEC chair, Trump has suggested he intends to attempt to pass through his picks for various agencies and departments through recess appointments, entirely circumventing the US Senate confirmation process. Most legal experts agreed that such appointments would violate US constitutional intent.

What would happen in a legal battle with Gensler v. Trump?

Very few US presidents have actually “fired” the head of regulatory bodies like the SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission because chairs tend to announce they will step down when there is a change in administration with a different political party. Legal precedent suggests that a US president can remove the head of an agency for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance.”

Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss, who donated more than $1 million to a political action committee supporting Trump, called Gensler “evil” with “sociopathic ambition” in a Nov. 15 X post. The escalating rhetoric followed calls from many in the crypto industry asking the SEC chair to resign. He has 63 days before Trump is scheduled to be sworn in.

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