Conversation with a16z Co-founder: Technological Progress Enabled by AI and the Future of America in the Regulatory Arena

Original Source: Tom Bilyeu, Youtube

Original Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Marc Andreessen, a16z Co-founder

Host: Tom Bilyeu

Podcast Source: Tom Bilyeu

Original Title: AI is bigger than the internet」How AI will change EVERYTHING Elon Musk Censorship | Marc Andreessen

Air Date: October 22, 2024

Background Information

Welcome to another thought-provoking episode of Impact Theory hosted by Tom Bilyeu. Today, we engage in an in-depth conversation with legendary entrepreneur and investor Marc Andreessen. Tom and Marc will delve into a wide range of topics, from the future of technology and artificial intelligence to the dynamic complexity of the American economy and society.

Marc shares his optimism about America's potential, particularly driven by its diversity and ambitious population, while Tom raises pressing questions about challenges such as inflation, government regulation, and economic growth. They discuss how technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence and robotics, could fundamentally transform industries but also potentially clash with traditional values and societal norms.

We will delve into key issues such as job displacement, censorship systems, and the evolving role of free speech in a rapidly changing world. Marc discusses "slow-moving sectors" like healthcare, education, and housing, emphasizing the urgent need for cost reduction and growth acceleration through technological integration.

This episode is filled with profound insights into the historical and future impact of technology on the economy, the role of government regulations, and the ever-evolving religious and cultural ideologies. Get ready to challenge your perspective and gain a deep understanding of the forces shaping our future. Fasten your seatbelt; this is a captivating discussion you won't want to miss!

How Companies Shape the Future through AI and Robotics

AI and Its Importance

Marc stated that the battle of AI scrutiny will become more intense and crucial. He believes that rapid technological advancement will bring about economic growth, but this requires people's attention and support.

Tom believes that AI will replace many jobs, and some people will need to reassign themselves by learning new skills, while others may not be able to do so. Both guests emphasized the need to prepare for future changes.

The Significant Disruption of AI

Marc emphasized that AI is a fundamental transformation, similar to the emergence of computer microprocessors and the internet. His optimism about AI is evident across multiple industries, especially in the medical and entertainment sectors. He mentioned that the healthcare industry will see significant breakthroughs due to AI applications, and the entertainment industry is also experiencing a surge in creativity.

The Advancement of Robotics Technology

Marc discussed the potential of robotics technology, mentioning past promises of household robots and automation. He pointed out that with technological advances, applications like self-driving cars and drones have gradually matured. He predicted that within the next five years, household robots will gradually enter the market.

Challenges Faced by Robotics

Marc mentioned that robotics technology faces three main challenges: physical control, power supply, and software development. Despite progress in sensors and data processing, challenges such as battery life and adaptability in complex environments still need to be overcome.

Interaction between Robotics and Humans

When discussing how robots should interact with humans, Marc believes that robots should be designed to be friendly and safe. He mentioned that modern language models allow robots to engage in natural conversations with humans, providing endless possibilities for future product design.

Societal Acceptance of AI

Tom proposed a viewpoint of societal polarization, suggesting that the future may see a dichotomy between embracing technology and rejecting technology. Marc expressed doubts about this, stating that despite such polarization, the majority of people will ultimately accept technological development, similar to the selective acceptance of technology by the Amish.

From Science Fiction to Reality: The Rapid Rise of AI

The Proliferation and Application of AI

Tom and Marc discussed the process of artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly transitioning from a niche technology to a common tool in everyday life.

Marc pointed out that the user base of AI systems like ChatGPT and Midjourney has already reached billions and is still rapidly growing in usage. Many people are using these tools in their work and studies, even though they may be unwilling to admit it to their superiors.

Democratization of Technology

Marc emphasized that the most powerful AI systems currently are open to the public at an extremely low cost (often free or up to a maximum of $20 per month). The speed of democratization of this technology has even surpassed that of personal computers and the internet. He mentioned that users can access the same technology as large corporations without paying high fees, which is changing people's traditional notions of accessing technology.

The Future of AI and Its Societal Impact

Tom expressed optimism about the future development of AI, believing that this technology will bring about significant changes. He acknowledged that AI will lead to a loss of many jobs, but at the same time will create new opportunities. Tom believes that young people, due to their adaptability, will be able to better leverage new technologies, and society needs to provide support for those affected, such as through Universal Basic Income (UBI).

Inflation Crisis: Why Is Your Savings Shrinking?

The Relationship Between Economy and Inflation

When discussing the economy, Tom raised an important question: Despite the significant productivity gains from technological advancements, why does inflation still exist? He believed that the government absorbs the economic benefits of technological progress by printing money, leading to a continuous rise in inflation. This phenomenon may cause people to make irrational choices when facing economic changes.

Tom expressed dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, especially with the massive increase in money supply. He mentioned that the government causes inflation by artificially increasing the money supply, eroding the wealth of ordinary people. Tom believed that the government has a moral responsibility to provide a non-inflationary form of currency so that ordinary people can preserve their wealth without relying on the stock market to combat inflation.

Productivity and Technological Change

Marc discussed the relationship between productivity growth and technological change. He pointed out that historically, in the decades before 1970, productivity growth was much faster than it is now. Despite technological advancements, productivity growth has remained at a lower level over the past sixty years. Marc mentioned that 1971 was a crucial turning point, after which productivity growth significantly slowed down.

Impact of a Low-Growth Environment

In a low-growth environment, the economy and politics often exhibit zero-sum game characteristics. Marc believes that in a slow economic growth scenario, society experiences polarization, with the wealth gap between the young and the old widening. Conversely, rapid technological advancement and productivity growth promote economic prosperity, offering opportunities for everyone to benefit.

Price Disparities Across Industries

Marc points out that there are significant price disparities across different industries in the current economy. Industries such as healthcare, education, and housing experience skyrocketing prices, while prices for video games, entertainment, and consumer electronics are decreasing. This phenomenon stems from industries undergoing rapid technological change facing less government regulation, while those with slower changes face strict regulations and limited supply.

Future Outlook

Marc predicts that if current trends persist, the cost of a four-year college degree may reach one million dollars in the future, while the prices of technology products will significantly decrease. This imbalance places a heavier economic burden on individuals, especially in terms of healthcare, education, and housing costs.

How Do Healthcare, Education, and Housing Drive Inflation?

The Necessity of Introducing Technology

Marc highlights that to address inflation in the healthcare, education, and housing sectors, more technology must be introduced. He believes that fully automated and AI-driven healthcare, education, and efficient housing construction can effectively reduce prices, thereby alleviating inflationary pressures. Without technological reforms, future politics will become exceptionally intense as people compete for increasingly scarce resources.

The Labor Market Paradox

Discussing a dockworker (DOC) union strike, Marc mentions that workers are demanding a ban on the introduction of new technology to protect their jobs. This contradictory stance reflects workers' desire for higher wages while also wanting to retain their jobs, showcasing a complex psychological dynamic. In reality, such protective measures prevent many workers from engaging in actual work, thereby increasing the overall economic cost.

Concentrated Benefits and Distributed Harms

Marc further explains the concept of "concentrated benefits and distributed harms." For DOC workers, measures to protect their jobs bring direct benefits but result in higher prices for other consumers when purchasing goods. This situation is prevalent in the economy, where specific interest groups secure protection through government lobbying, ultimately leading to a decrease in overall economic efficiency.

The Impact of Occupational Licensing

Marc also mentioned that around 30% of jobs in the United States require some form of occupational license, a phenomenon particularly pronounced in California, where it has become a barrier to entry for professions such as beauticians. The strict occupational licensing system makes it difficult for newcomers to enter the market, thereby limiting industry competition and innovation, further driving up service prices.

Monopoly of the Education System

In the field of education, Marc pointed out that due to the existence of federal student loans, colleges and universities must be accredited to receive loans, and the accreditation process is controlled by existing educational institutions. This self-protective mechanism makes it challenging for new schools to be established, restricting the supply in the education market, thereby pushing up tuition fees.

Are Licensing Requirements Just a Monopoly Scam?

Government Monopoly and Union Protection

Marc noted that K-12 education is not only a cartel structure but also a government monopoly. Many government employees, including teachers and police officers, enjoy civil service and union protection, making them difficult to dismiss. This system results in incompetent teachers not being able to be fired, further exacerbating issues with educational quality.

Legal and Automation Barriers

Marc emphasized that laws restrict the application of artificial intelligence in many fields. AI cannot become a lawyer, doctor, or engage in construction work because these are all prohibited by law. This legal limitation prevents many parts of the economy from being automated, stifling the potential for economic growth.

The Proliferation of Laws and Regulations

Marc mentioned that since the 1970s, the number of laws and regulations in the United States has sharply increased, severely constraining economic activities. He cited Judge Neil Gorsuch's work, stating that the quantity and complexity of laws have made it difficult for ordinary citizens to comply and may inadvertently lead to legal violations. He stressed that many laws and regulations are designed to protect the interests of specific interest groups, leading to the phenomenon of "concentrated benefits and dispersed harm."

Potential for Economic Reform

Regarding future reforms, Marc mentioned that Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, is attempting large-scale deregulation to stimulate economic growth. He believes that effective regulation reduction could lead to higher economic growth and prosperity. Milei's reforms have received public support as people are already fed up with the existing high inflation and regulatory system.

Free Speech and Cultural Discourse

Tom believes that restoring free speech is crucial for economic recovery. He emphasizes the necessity of open discussions of differing viewpoints and the challenge of balancing free speech and regulation in the AI era. Marc also states that he strongly supports free speech and believes that the internet should follow the principles of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, with restrictions only when it involves genuinely dangerous behavior.

The Era of AI Censorship Is Coming – What You Need to Know

Comparison of Social Media Censorship and AI Censorship

Marc points out that the censorship battle on social media is a prelude to the AI censorship battle. He believes that AI censorship will become more intense and significant as AI becomes the "software layer" that controls everything, impacting our education, communication, and various aspects of life. He mentions that some AI systems have already shown clear biases, displaying obvious unfairness when providing information about different political candidates.

The Current State of Information Warfare

Marc emphasizes that the conflict of AI censorship has already begun, with those who once advocated for social media censorship now turning to AI censorship. He warns that this may be one of the most critical political struggles in the next 30 years.

The Control of Truth and Narratives

Tom expresses concerns about AI censorship, pointing out that control of narratives may lead to thought manipulation. He believes that when AI is used to propagate a specific ideology, it can influence people's thinking by setting the narrative, restricting understanding of the truth.

Elon Musk's AI Vision

Marc mentions that Elon Musk is pursuing "maximizing truth exploration" in his AI projects, including scientific truths and socio-political truths. He believes that successfully building an AI that truly seeks the truth would be a fundamental paradigm shift.

The Potential of Open-Source AI

Marc believes that open-source AI could play a significant role in advancing truth exploration, as it allows people to experiment and develop without permission, thereby promoting broader discussions and debates.

Pressure from Government and Corporations

Marc warns that tech companies today face immense pressure from governments and social activists, pressures that may intensify. He emphasizes that whether the public cares about this issue and is willing to stand up to defend free speech will be crucial.

Marc concluded that the potential impact of AI moderation is profound, and society needs to pay attention to this issue to uphold the rights of free speech and truth exploration. He called for public engagement in discussions to ensure that AI technology progresses towards promoting open exchange of ideas and truth.

The Secret Power Struggle Shaping Our Culture

The Double Standards of Cultural Censorship

Marc pointed out that many people in today's society support the censorship system mainly because they want to protect their own views. In the past, the Christian conservative movement was the main driver of censorship in America, while the left advocated for free speech. Over time, a shift in power has placed the left in control of mainstream culture, and now they tend to restrict speech, with the right becoming the opposing force against censorship. This changing dynamic reflects the struggle of culture and power, where whoever holds power tends to restrict speech.

The Importance of Free Speech

Tom emphasized the importance of free speech, stating that expressing ideas and facing challenges are at the core of critical thinking. He used the example of Newtonian physics and relativity to illustrate that scientific truth is constantly being revised and updated, and only through open discussion and challenge can we approach reality. For young entrepreneurs, accepting criticism and challenges is key to skill improvement and gaining practical knowledge.

Elon Musk's Recipe for Success

When discussing Elon Musk's success, Marc pointed out that Musk's work style and mindset set him apart. He highlighted Musk's focus on real issues, rapid project advancement, and the ability to quickly identify and address bottlenecks. This efficient way of working enables his companies to make progress faster than competitors.

Opposition to Bureaucracy

Marc also mentioned that many large companies become inefficient due to excessive bureaucracy and processes. He cited the example of Shopify CEO Toby Luky, explaining that by periodically canceling all meetings and reassessing which meetings are necessary, a company can avoid falling into an ineffective meeting culture. Such practices help maintain the company's agility and ensure that employees can focus on actual work.

How IBM's Corporate Hierarchy Stifles Innovation

The Impact of Bureaucracy

Discussing IBM, Marc pointed out that the corporate hierarchy and bureaucracy severely hinder innovation. He illustrated that within IBM, the decision-making process is extremely complex, requiring approval from multiple layers of managers to make any decision. This "consensus" system mandates unanimous agreement from every relevant manager, allowing any one dissenting voice to halt decision-making progress, preventing the company from quickly adapting to market changes.

Excessive Management Layers

Marc mentioned that during his tenure, becoming a CEO required navigating through as many as 12 management layers. This massive structure led to slow information flow and inefficient decision-making. As the company grew, the connections between employees became increasingly sparse, with many employees possibly never meeting colleagues from other departments in their entire careers, creating a closed ecosystem.

The "Rubber Room" Phenomenon

Marc also mentioned a phenomenon similar to the "rubber rooms" in New York City public schools, where IBM had a similar situation where many underperforming employees were placed in positions with no substantive work, further exacerbating the company's inefficiency and loss of innovation capacity. This situation made it difficult for the company to react and adapt quickly to market challenges.

The Relationship Between Culture and Innovation

Marc emphasized that the health of organizational culture directly influences the ability to innovate. In a bureaucratic environment, employees often lack initiative and creativity because their ideas and suggestions may be drowned in layers of approval. In contrast, leaders like Elon Musk encourage proactive innovation and rapid experimentation through a flattened management structure and efficient decision-making processes.

The Impact of AI on Society: What is the Meaning of Human Interaction

The Evolution of AI-Human Relations

Tom raised a thought-provoking point, suggesting that in the future, people may form intimate relationships with AI and even in some cases choose to co-parent "AI children." This trend could lead to significant changes in social structures and interpersonal relationships. With technological advancements, people may increasingly rely on AI to fulfill emotional needs, possibly replacing traditional human interactions to some extent.

Cultural Shifts and Fertility Rates

Marc further delved into the issue of global declining fertility rates, noting its prevalence across different cultures, reflecting humanity's confusion and sense of crisis in the face of modern life pressures. He mentioned how this decline in fertility rates is closely tied to people's search for meaning in life. While pursuing self-realization, individuals may overlook the traditional values of family and procreation.

Crisis of Meaning and Technological Interaction

Marc emphasized that technology doesn't just change culture; culture also shapes technological development. With the widespread adoption of AI, people may face a deeper crisis of meaning as the emergence of AI could alter perspectives on intimate relationships, family, and procreation. People may redefine the concept of "family" in the company of AI, leading to reflections and debates on religious and cultural grounds.

The Shift in Human Psychology

Marc also mentioned that the experience of becoming a parent profoundly transforms a person's psychological state and outlook on life. This shift cannot be fully replaced by one's relationship with AI, as the emotional connection between humans and the unique experience of raising a child are not within AI's ability to simulate. While individuals may form some form of emotional bond with AI, this connection still fundamentally differs in depth and complexity compared to human relationships.

Future Outlook

In the future, AI may become an integral part of human life, potentially even replacing traditional intimate relationships to some extent. However, Marc reminds us that despite AI offering convenience and companionship, genuine human interaction and emotional connection remain indispensable elements of our lives. We need to uphold the value of interpersonal relationships and family bonds while enjoying the convenience technology brings, ensuring that our emotional needs as humans are met.

Why Interpersonal Relationships Are More Crucial Than Ever in an Era of Declining Birth Rates

The Central Role of Interpersonal Relationships

Marc emphasizes that the human need to form profound relationships with others, whether with relatives or non-relatives, is deeply ingrained. This connection holds a central place in our lives, particularly as birth rates decline and changes in family structures make interpersonal relationships more crucial. As people opt for fewer or no children, traditional family ties may weaken, highlighting the preciousness of connections between individuals.

The Impact of Declining Birth Rates

The decline in birth rates signifies that many traditional family and community structures are undergoing changes. Marc mentions that as more people choose not to have children, the transmission of many cultures and values may be affected. This shift not only impacts individuals' lifestyles but may also have profound implications for societal cohesion as a whole. People may increasingly rely on friends and communities to fill this void, seeking emotional support and a sense of belonging.

Material Wealth and Spiritual Exploration

Marc also points out that despite advancements in technology and AI improving our material standard of living, it does not mean that humans have found answers to existential questions. On the contrary, material wealth may provide individuals with more opportunities to ponder these deeply rooted issues. When individuals no longer struggle for survival, they can better delve into significant questions regarding religion, philosophy, and lifestyle. Therefore, with the enhancement of material conditions, the value of interpersonal relationships may further ascend.

The Interplay of Religion and Interpersonal Relationships

When discussing the influence of religion, Marc points out that the forms of religion in modern society have undergone changes. While many people may no longer participate in religious activities in a traditional way, the core values of religion and exploration of human existence still exist in various aspects of society, including politics and culture. When facing life's challenges and uncertainties, people often tend to revert to some form of faith or value system, a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly evident in today's society.

Future Perspectives

With the continuous development of society, the decreasing birth rates may lead to a reshaping of interpersonal relationships. People may place greater emphasis on connections with others to compensate for the absence of traditional family structures. At the same time, technological advancements will provide new ways for people to establish and maintain these relationships. Despite facing many challenges, the importance of interpersonal relationships will become more prominent in this rapidly changing world, becoming a key aspect for people seeking support and meaning.

Why Religion is No Longer the Definer of Culture and Genes

Historical Connection of Religion with Culture and Genes

Marc mentions that early Western civilization was composed of families, tribes, and cities, wherein shared ancestry, culture, religion, and geography were present. In the past, religion was closely linked to these elements, and altering one's faith was considered unimaginable. However, as society developed, these elements gradually became abstract, and the connection of religion with culture and genes became loose. Modern individuals can now freely choose their religious beliefs, no longer confined by their cultural and familial backgrounds at birth.

Religious Choices in Modern Society

In today's society, individuals can choose to be Catholics, Christians, Jews, Muslims, or even create their own religion. This freedom of choice has made religion like a "buffet," where individuals can construct their belief systems based on their needs and preferences. While this change has promoted innovation in the concept of religion, it has also led to a reduced importance of religion in modern life.

The "Non-Seriousness" of Religion

Marc points out that modern attitudes toward religion appear less serious. When religious beliefs are no longer convenient, people are more prone to choosing to abandon or change their faith. This phenomenon reflects the declining status of religion in contemporary society. Although the religious impulse in humanity still exists, its expression and focus have shifted.

Alternatives to the Religious Impulse

Tom proposes a hypothesis suggesting that the intensity of the religious impulse remains constant across different cultures and backgrounds, only its target has changed. He uses video games as an example, stating that people invest significant time and emotion in the gaming community, forming a sense of belonging similar to religion. This sense of belonging and investment in games can fulfill people's needs for community and identity. While this sense of belonging is not equivalent to the traditional influence of religion, it reflects humanity's desire for belonging and meaning.

The Secret Role of Religion in Building Strong Social Bonds

Religion's Role in Group Formation and Cohesion

Marc mentioned that religion has historically played a significant role in group formation and cohesion. In ancient societies, the formation of families, tribes, and cities was closely related to religious beliefs. Initially, the family was the basic social unit, and over time, families gathered into tribes, which then converged into cities, with each level having its specific deities and beliefs. This religious structure not only strengthened the connections between families and tribes but also provided a spiritual foundation for the formation of cities.

The Relationship between Survival and Religion

In ancient times, the survival environment was extremely harsh, with threats such as famine, floods, and invasions looming over the community. In such a backdrop, religion became an essential tool for uniting people and enhancing cohesion. Religious beliefs enabled individuals to form common moral obligations in the face of external threats, maintaining the stability and survival of the group.

Religious Impulses in Modern Society

Although the survival environment in modern society differs significantly from ancient times, human religious impulses still prevail. Tom points out that these impulses in today's society may shift to other areas, such as video games and politics. People seek a sense of belonging and identity in these domains, forming new communities and cultural bonds. The teamwork and competition in video games precisely reflect people's need for group identity.

Morality and Blindness

Marc references psychologist Jonathan Haidt's view, emphasizing how shared moral views or religious beliefs can bring people together but may also lead to the rejection of other perspectives. This phenomenon is particularly evident in modern politics, where intense party struggles make it harder for individuals to understand each other's positions and instead lean towards safeguarding their own group interests.

Politics as the New "Religion"

Marc and Tom both agree that modern politics to some extent serves as a substitute for religion. The fervor and engagement people exhibit towards politics often mirror the intensity of religious beliefs. Political faith not only influences individuals' life choices but also fosters a strong sense of belonging in society. This observation indicates that although the influence of traditional religion has waned, humanity's need for faith and belonging persists and finds fulfillment in other domains.

With the diminishing influence of traditional religion, political faith increasingly acts as people's spiritual refuge. The intense confrontations and deep sense of belonging in modern politics lead people to some extent to view politics as a new form of religion. Whether in the course of history or in today's society, this transformation reflects humanity's eternal pursuit of meaning and belonging.

The Unexpected Link Between Productivity and Innovation

Marc mentioned that productivity growth is a key economic indicator that measures the impact of technology on the economy. In simple terms, productivity growth means producing more output with less input. This concept can be illustrated through many examples, such as using more efficient tools and technology to accelerate railway construction, reduce car production costs, or enhance the efficiency of video game development.

The speed of productivity growth directly affects the pace of economic growth. When productivity increases, the prices of goods and services usually decrease. For example, 200 years ago, the cost of buying an avocado was equivalent to $100 today, but now it only costs $1. This reduction in price increases consumers' purchasing power, allowing them to buy more goods and services even without wage growth.

New Consumer Demands and Industry Development

With the rise in consumer purchasing power, the market's demand for new products and services also increases. This growth in demand will drive the emergence of new industries and job opportunities, forming a virtuous cycle. Marc believes that if artificial intelligence develops as expected, productivity will significantly increase, and the prices of goods and services will further decrease, enabling more people to afford what they desire.

Technological Adaptation and Economic Growth

Marc emphasizes that the introduction of technology does not lead to unemployment; instead, it creates more job opportunities and better working conditions. He mentions that historical concerns about technology replacing human labor are often unfounded. Technological progress usually brings higher productivity and lower costs, thereby driving economic development.

Optimism Toward the Future

Although Marc is optimistic about the future, he also emphasizes that material well-being does not solve all underlying issues in life. He believes that material well-being is the foundation for addressing larger problems but is not the ultimate goal. He clearly states that he is not advocating for a new religion but rather aiming to improve human living conditions through the advancement of technology and productivity.

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