Top Polymarket whale profits $20M from Trump victory
Crypto whales, or large investors betting on Donald Trump’s victory, have made millions on the leading decentralized prediction market.
The biggest Trump-betting account on Polymarket , known as “Theo4,” earned more than $20.4 million in profit on his pro-Trump bets, according to data shared by Lookonchain on Nov. 6.
Theo4, Polymarket whale. Source: Lookonchain
Another mysterious whale known as “Fredi9999” made a profit of more than $15.6 million, while a third whale, “zxgngl,” netted over $11 million, according to a Nov. 6 X post by Lookonchain.
During October, 10 whale addresses spent a combined $70.6 million worth of USD Coin ( USDC ) to place bets on Trump winning the 2024 US election .
Fredi9999, Polymarket whale. Source: Lookonchain
On Oct. 18, the main account related to Fredi bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares , Cointelegraph reported. On Oct. 28, Trump’s odds increased to 66% , after zxgngl spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares.
Considering Trump’s projected victory , the profitable payday may be close for the Polymarket whales, since the “market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all call the election for the same candidate,” according to Polymarket’s disclaimer.
Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Source: Associated Press
The Associated Press declared Trump as the winner of the 2024 presidential election on Nov. 6 at 10:46 am UTC.
Related: Trump win confirmed? Jim Cramer says markets predict Harris win
Over 50% of Trump “Yes” shares are controlled by five whales on Polymarket
As of Nov. 4, a day ahead of election day, over 50% of Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on Polymarket were controlled by five mysterious whales.
Top Trump-betting accounts. Source: Polymarket
This could result in a payday exceeding $81 million for the whales, pseudonymous political bettorDomer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post :
“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares -- including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”
Trump “Yes” shareholders on Polymarket. Source: Domer
In contrast, shares for Vice President Kamala Harris were more distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Harris’ largest shareholder ha only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s top shareholder controlled 29.1%, Domer added.
Related: Bitcoin set for post-election breakout, but flipping $70K to support is the first hurdle
At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by one entity with high confidence in a Trump victory, Domer told Cointelegraph:
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
Decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, as investors are voting with their savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk .
What does Trump’s victory mean for crypto in the US?
For the latest analysis of Trump’s election victory and the crypto market reaction, tune in to today’s Rise’n’Crypto podcast from Cointelegraph.
Magazine: Saylor falls for fake Trump news, Kraken restructures, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 27 – Nov. 2
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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