Trump or Harris: A look at real-time data and information on the US election
During the countdown to the election, BlockBeats updates the latest election data and key hot news in real time to help you better follow the election dynamics
On the morning of November 6, Beijing time, the results of the 2024 US election will be preliminarily determined. This election has attracted particular attention, not only because the two candidates have remarkable backgrounds and campaign journeys, but also because it is a election that is superimposed with major political and economic changes and turmoil in the United States and even around the world.
During the countdown to the election, BlockBeats will update the latest election data in real time and sort out key hot news to help readers better follow and understand the dynamics of the election.
Real-time data
The road to 270 votes
According to current data statistics, Harris has basically locked in 226 electoral votes, while Trump is temporarily behind with 219 votes. In order to win the election, Harris needs to win another 44 electoral votes, while Trump needs to win another 51.
Latest Poll Data
Vice President Harris showed a "reversal" trend in the latest poll data, leading Trump by 49:48 and 49:46 on left-leaning media platforms such as Yahoo News and ABC News, respectively, while the two were still tied at 49:49 on platforms such as NBC News and the New York Post, and the battle was still very tense.
Key swing states
In this election, eight swing states, including Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, will have a key or even decisive impact on the final election results, and are regarded as the decisive battleground between Harris and Trump. This morning, many mainstream media reported that Harris unexpectedly overtook Trump in Iowa and was the first to "win" a swing state. Harris is also slightly ahead of Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is still ahead in the remaining five states.
Forecast market data comparison
In this election, the data given by various forecast markets for the election results are very different. Currently, Polymarket shows that Trump is still leading with a 57.9% chance of winning (but it fell rapidly after Harris's comeback in Iowa over the weekend and this morning), while RealClear Polling's average results based on various poll data show that Trump only maintains a 0.3% advantage over Harris.
Latest News
11-04 22:23
Robert Kennedy Jr. campaigns for Trump
Former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media, "Vote for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don't vote for me. Let's send President Trump back to the White House and send me to Washington so that we can make America healthy again, end endless wars, and protect our civil liberties."
11-04 22:10
Billionaire Mark Cuban campaigns for Harris
Billionaire Mark Cuban posted on social media, "Join me in the largest telephone campaign to help Kamala Harris be elected as the next President of the United States. The "All for Kamala" campaign will start at 10 am Eastern Time on Election Day."
11-04 21:55
A Polymarket user spent $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory
The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has increased its position by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours. This address has spent a total of $14.13 million betting on Trump's victory.
11-04 21:26
Trump and Harris will both go to Pittsburgh to hold a rally on the last day before the election
Kamala Harris will visit Pennsylvania on the 4th local time. She will start in Scranton and conduct a mobilization event, and then go to Yartown and Reading, which have large Puerto Rican communities, where she will attend rallies with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Next, she will go to Pittsburgh for a rally, where she will attend the rally with her second husband Doug Emhoff. Harris and Emhoff will then go to Philadelphia, where she will make a final pitch to voters in Pennsylvania.
11-04 20:38
CNBC: Trump plans to hold rallies in three key states on the last day before the election
Trump will divide his time in three key states on the last day before the election.
According to the Trump campaign, rallies are planned in Raleigh, North Carolina, Reading, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, Michigan, and Grand Rapids.
Grand Rapids holds a unique position in Trump's campaign history: as the second largest city in Michigan, Grand Rapids was Trump's last stop on the eve of his previous two presidential campaigns.
11-04 20:12
JP Morgan estimates Trump's chances of winning are 60-70%
JP Morgan estimates Trump's chances of winning are 60-70% and predicts that the dollar will rise by 5% if the Republicans win the election and by 1.5-2% if Congress is split.
11-04 16:16
Analyst: The market should remain cautious amid uncertainty in the US election
Michael D Zezas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations.
He said rising odds implied by forecast markets for a Republican victory have led some to expect the election to produce a clear result on Election Night. Morgan Stanley sees that as a possibility, but not the most likely scenario.
Neither candidate appears to be the clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so a repeat of the long vote count of 2020 is possible. Morgan Stanley is putting less weight on early voting data given its poor track record and advises against reading too much into short-term market moves. The firm said short-term market reactions to elections tend to be noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends.
11-04 15:16
Latest Updates on the US Presidential Election: Polls Show Harris Leading in Early Voting
With less than 48 hours until the US election, more than 77.6 million votes have been cast, and new polls show Harris leading in early voting in key states. The Democratic candidate leads by 8% among voters who have voted, while opponent Trump has an advantage among voters who are "very likely to vote but have not yet voted."
According to polls from The New York Times and Siena College, Harris has a slight lead in three swing states, Trump leads in one state, and three other states are too close to call.
With just a few hours left on the campaign trail, Harris spoke in Michigan, while Republican rival Trump complained about gaps in his bulletproof shield at a rally in Pennsylvania and suggested he wouldn't mind journalists being shot if an assassination attempt occurred.
11-04 12:56
On November 4, due to the intensive events this week, the US election is superimposed on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Most traders believe that this week will be volatile and may be violent, because the election is likely to have a controversial result, dragging the counting of votes for weeks or even months.
At the same time, hedge funds are betting on greater price fluctuations. Data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this month showed that large speculators turned net long on VIX futures for the first time since January 2019.
Several veteran Wall Street traders advise that cash is king. Among them, Robert Schein, chief investment officer of Blanke Schein Wealth Management, said he has increased his holdings in cash equivalents to 10% from the usual 5%. His strategy is to be ready to snap up assets when the results inevitably trigger volatility in at least some markets.
Eric Diton, president and managing director of Wealth Alliance, said in an interview: "We will not make any positioning for the election results because it is equivalent to flipping a coin. There is no point in betting."
11-04 12:39
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 index (SPX) is higher in the three months before the election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% probability of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index is lower in the three months before the election, the probability of the other party candidate winning is 89%.
It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators said Harris would have a good chance of winning if the S&P 500 had not erased 8% of its gains since August in one day.
At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the above historical experience.
11-04 12:17
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate by 1%-2% this week
On November 4, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the US dollar in early trading due to possible position adjustments before the US presidential election on Tuesday. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) global economic and market research team said in a report that the US dollar "is likely to trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said that if Trump leads in the early count of in-person voting, the US dollar may climb. However, Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail or in person early, and those ballots take longer to count.
As a result, the team said Trump's lead could shrink or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the dollar could depreciate by 1%-2% this week.
11-04 11:05
The US non-farm data in October was far below expectations, excluding the data distortion caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, and the labor market is also gradually cooling down.
At the same time, the results of the US election are about to be announced, Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened, and the "Trump deal" has reversed, adding more uncertainty to the election. According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report was disappointing on Friday, the weak US non-farm payrolls in October boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. In addition, Amazon and Intel, which reported favorable financial reports, boosted optimism in technology stocks. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%.
However, on a weekly basis, US stocks fell all week. The Nasdaq bid farewell to the previous seven-week winning streak and fell 1.5% for the week, the S&P fell 1.4%, and the Dow fell 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump deal". After approaching a record high at the end of the month, risk aversion has intensified. As of press time, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, and the 7-day gain closed down to 1.8%.
11-04 10:35
JP Morgan: Trump's victory may prompt the Fed to suspend rate cuts as early as December
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling.
Kelly pointed out that if the Republicans win a big victory in Trump's victory, there will be more expansionary fiscal policies, which may trigger trade wars and expand deficits, leading to higher interest rates.
On the other hand, Kelly said that if Vice President Harris wins, the economy may continue its soft landing trajectory. In this case, the Federal Reserve may stick to its expected easing policy path.
11-04 09:12
According to the analysis of Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged overnight. Bitcoin's volatility is currently 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%.
Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that election night will lead to large price fluctuations. BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.
Nick Forster added that BTC's total open interest in call options is 1,179, while the total open interest in put options is 885, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.
11-04 08:52
Des Moines Register Poll: Trump's support in the "light red state" Iowa was reversed by Harris
According to analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH soared overnight. Bitcoin's volatility is currently 80.30%, higher than the previous 72.20%, and Ethereum's volatility is currently 82.92%, higher than the previous 75.40%.
Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects that traders are preparing for the election results, which may greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds probability that the election night will cause large price fluctuations. The fluctuation range of BTC is between -8.97% and +9.85%, and the fluctuation range of ETH is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%.
Nick Forster added that BTC's total call option open interest is 1,179 contracts, while the total put option open interest is 885 contracts, which clearly shows that despite the potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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