Polls Ahead of the U.S. Election: Who Will Win Key Voters in Future Elections?

Original Title: "October 2024 Public Opinion Poll"

Authors: Justin Slaughter, Dominique Little

Compiled by: Fu Ruhe, Odaily Planet Daily

In the upcoming November 2024 U.S. election, the influence of cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly significant and may be a key factor in determining the outcome.

According to the latest poll from Paradigm, 5% of voters consider cryptocurrency policy as their primary voting consideration, with this percentage being more pronounced among young voters and men. Among voters, 20% have already invested in or used cryptocurrency, and another 15% plan to invest in the next year, indicating a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency.

The survey results also reveal voters' attitudes toward the two main candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Although Harris has a slight lead in overall support, among cryptocurrency holders, the support for both candidates is equal. This suggests that the voting intentions of cryptocurrency holders could significantly impact the election results.

Notably, voter trust in the Republican Party regarding cryptocurrency policy has increased, which may influence the voting choices of independent voters. Additionally, an increasing number of voters believe that cryptocurrency will play an important role in the future economy, reflecting a growing awareness of DeFi.

Overall, the rise of cryptocurrency is not only changing the landscape of financial markets but is also playing an increasingly important role in the political arena, adding new variables to the upcoming election.

Here is the original content.

Paradigm Note: This poll was conducted from October 17 to 22, using the Dynata online panel, with quotas set and weighted by age, gender, education, and race to reflect the potential voters in November 2024. The sample size was 1,000 potential voters, with a margin of error of 3.53%, and an oversampling of 247 independent voters, with a margin of error of 7.11%.

For political observers, we found that the Democratic Party leads in the congressional popular vote by 44% to 43%. 44% of respondents identify as Republicans, 42% as Democrats, while Joe Biden's job approval rating stands at 41% to 59%. Harris leads Trump nationally by 48% to 46%; among independent voters, Harris leads by 42% to 30%.

In the U.S. election this November, cryptocurrency voters will play a crucial role.

This is the main insight from our October 2024 poll and the last complete poll of this election cycle. 5% of voters identify as single-issue cryptocurrency voters, and voters who own cryptocurrency are likely to be the key to the outcome of this seemingly close election. At the same time, American voters' views on cryptocurrency are expanding and maturing, with more voters seeing cryptocurrency as an important part of future life.

Key Point 1: A Quarter of Cryptocurrency Holders Identify as Single-Issue Voters

We asked 20% of voters who have purchased cryptocurrency: "Do you consider government cryptocurrency policy to be the most important policy when choosing a candidate?"
Among this group, a quarter (or 5% of all voters) identified as single-issue cryptocurrency voters. This includes 11% of voters aged 18-34, 8% of men, and 7% of non-white voters (including 7% of Black voters and 8% of Hispanic voters). In key swing states , such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, the margin of votes is often within 1-2 percentage points, meaning that 5% of voters could be the deciding factor.

Key Point 2: Cryptocurrency Ownership Expected to Continue Growing

As of this month, 20% of voters reported that they have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, and another 15% indicated they might invest in cryptocurrency in the next year. This percentage rises to 21% and 18% among independent voters, respectively. 1% of voters reported that they invested in cryptocurrency for the first time in the past few weeks, with 3% of independent voters falling into this category.

Key Point 3: Cryptocurrency Holders Remain Young, Non-White, and Predominantly Male

29% of men have purchased cryptocurrency, while only 12% of women have done so. Consistent with our March survey, 40% of men aged 18-54 have purchased cryptocurrency, while the figure is 16% among women aged 18-34 and 19% among women aged 35-54. In this survey, the proportion of non-white voters who have purchased cryptocurrency is 23%, down from previous surveys, while the proportion of white voters has risen to 19%. This aligns with the demographic characteristics of the key swing voters that Harris and Trump are competing for in the final stretch.

Key Point 4: Cryptocurrency Holders May Be a Decisive Factor in This Election

Among all surveyed voters, 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris, while 46% support former President Donald Trump. However, among voters who have purchased cryptocurrency, the support for the candidates is equal at 47%. Among voters who have not purchased cryptocurrency, Harris leads by 48% to 45%. These changes are all within the margin of error. We know that the number of votes that could determine the outcome of this election is very small, with the popular vote margin expected to lean toward the Democrats by about 2-3%.

Key Point 5: Voter Trust in the Republican Party's Cryptocurrency Policy Has Increased

In March, we asked voters, "Which party do you think is more trustworthy regarding cryptocurrency?" 25% chose the Democratic Party, 24% chose the Republican Party, 3% chose both, and 49% chose neither. Six months later, when we asked the same question again, 30% of voters indicated they trust the Republican Party more, 24% trust the Democratic Party more, 5% chose both, and 41% chose neither. Independent voters' views remain uncertain, with 9% trusting the Republican Party, 10% trusting the Democratic Party, and 72% expressing distrust.

Key Point 6: Americans Are Increasingly Expecting the Application of Cryptocurrency in Future Daily Life

When asked whether voters believe cryptocurrency is a passing trend or an important part of the long-term economy, 46% of voters and 47% of independent voters believe it will become an important part of the economy. Given that only 20% of voters have purchased cryptocurrency, these data suggest that even millions of voters who have not directly purchased cryptocurrency view it as an important part of future American life.

Key Point 7: Cryptocurrency Holders Believe Trump Is More Favorable to Cryptocurrency

We asked voters who have purchased cryptocurrency: "Who do you think will be more favorable to the growth and regulation of cryptocurrency?" 58% of cryptocurrency holders (12% of all voters) believe Trump will be better, while 42% (less than 9% of voters) believe Harris will be better. Further emphasizing the complexity of cryptocurrency voters, 7% believe Trump is better but will vote for Harris, while 2% believe Harris is better but will vote for Trump.

Key Point 8: Voters' Views on the Biden Administration's Cryptocurrency and Technology Policies Remain Negative, but More Positive Toward Trump or Harris

We asked voters: "Considering the Biden administration's policies on technology and cryptocurrency, do you think these policies are good or bad for American innovation?" 49% of voters said the policies are good, while 51% said they are bad. Among independent voters, negative views are more pronounced, with 54% believing they are very bad or somewhat bad. Only 11% of voters believe these policies are very good.

We also asked voters about their concern for Trump and Harris regarding American innovation, with both receiving a score of 5.5, while independent voters scored them at 5.1. Overall, voters seem to believe that Harris and Trump's administrations have a more positive attitude toward technology and innovation than the Biden administration.

Key Point 9: Awareness of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Is Increasing

We asked voters if they have heard of "DeFi," and 53% of American voters reported that they have heard of the term. However, opinions on DeFi have not yet solidified, with only 10% of voters holding a favorable view, 16% holding an unfavorable view, and 27% expressing no opinion. Independent voters' views are almost evenly split, with 11% holding a positive view of DeFi, 13% holding a negative view, and 30% having no opinion.