Trump election odds near 67% as Polymarket whale bets another $2M
Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead on the leading blockchain-based betting market is nearing 67% as a mysterious whale continues to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5.
Trump’s odds to win the upcoming presidential election surpassed 66.3% on the leading decentralized predictions market on Oct. 28, according to Polymarket data .
Presidential election winner 2024, one-month chart. Source: Polymarket
Trump’s odds increased after a Polymarket whale, or large holder, invested another $2 million worth of USD Coin ( USDC ) tokens into pro-Trump bets.
The mysterious whale has spent a total of $7.22 million on “Yes” shares, according to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, which wrote in an Oct. 28 X post:
“Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes' shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”
With only seven days until the 2024 US presidential election , decentralized prediction markets could offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, according to billionaire Elon Musk .
The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points , Cointelegraph reported.
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Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”
The mysterious Polymarket whale, known as “zxgngl,” holds over 11.2 million “Yes” votes worth over $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.
Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, positions. Source: Polymarket
The increasing positions come after the top Trump bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares up until Oct. 18.
Moreover, Fredi’s transaction patterns suggest that it controls four out of the six largest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket, which were all funded with Kraken deposits of $1 million or $500,000 to immediately invest the funds as Trump votes.
Leading Trump bettors. Source: PolyMarket
While 99% of zxgngl’s bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not the Kraken exchange. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.
Zxgngl, Polymarket deposits. Source: Lookonchain
As for Fredi, the account is likely controlled by a person with deep conviction in a Trump victory, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who told Cointelegraph:
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
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US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth
The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.
The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in the third quarter to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.
Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko
This significant third-quarter growth is mainly attributed to the upcoming US elections, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report.
Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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