A review of 8 years of cryptography: stories and growth in 3 bear markets

Original title: "An 8-year practitioner tells you how to survive the bear market garbage time"

Original author: AB Kuai.Dong

Garbage time in the industry

The market has gradually become quiet again recently. Many colleagues said that they can't see the direction clearly, or are forced to be friends with time. This is actually not the first time.

Looking back, since I entered the circle in 2016, it seems that I have experienced four major garbage cycles. Although I often comfort myself in my heart that all this will pass, the positive cycle will come back, and liquidity will come back, but when it is really in garbage time, people will be more or less depressed or helpless.

Winter in Zhongguancun

The first garbage time was when I entered the circle. At that time, the industry had just turned from the cold winter of 2015 to the recovery period of 2016. OKCoin and Huobi.com, located in Zhongguancun, also stopped layoffs. The market was gradually recovering, and the exchanges finally had positive income.

Since it was my first time entering the circle, the novelty lasted for two years with me, which also meant that no matter what black swan happened in the industry, I remained full of expectations for the industry.

Many of the exchange employees at that time have also become industry leaders today. Few of them would mention that they had worked in a certain school and rented a shared room with a wall hanging for more than 2,000 yuan. Now they prefer to use xxx founders or managing partners of funds to call themselves. LinkedIn information has also changed from no education experience to MBAs from new national universities or Ivy League schools.

Of course, the circle was actually more fun at that time. Everyone's education and background levels were uneven. Basically, there were roadshows and lectures on blockchain every month on the entrepreneurial street. The lecturer might be a rich man who used to sell beef to buy coins, or he might be the person in charge of exchange operations who graduated from a technical school. The industry was really sinking in that era, and participating in these meetings was really really sinking.

Although there was no Meme at that time, there were many such sinking activities and CX disks, which made the industry very prosperous. That year, Jubi, Yuanbao, Bit Era, and Biter also had a hundred-fold myth every day. Although the liquidity was very poor, 100,000 RMB to buy a copycat coin, 5% slippage, but at least it supported WeChat recharge.

That year, the first project I participated in that was listed was an IP coin of an internet celebrity in the circle. I was responsible for helping them revise the white paper and complete the connection with the exchange. Of course, there was no follow-up of the token. After the listing, the investor and the internet celebrity made a lot of money, and everyone broke up. The investor continued to return to their cultural field and packaged one internet celebrity after another. The internet celebrity himself later changed his identity and went to OKCoin to be the vice president for a year, and then faded out of the circle.

So, during that cold winter, the industry was still very exciting, because the connection between tradition and the cryptocurrency circle, whether it was legal currency or law, had no obstacles, and all kinds of strange projects were staged every day.

The End of ICO

The second garbage time was from the second half of 2018 to 2019. Many of my friends who were pushing the news should have entered the circle after that wave of ICO. At that time, the assets in the industry had serious bubbles and overbought, so after the bubble burst, the market entered a long period of silence.

I still remember a small episode, that is, when the bubble was just coming, many Internet venture capital VCs in 2016 and 2017, the projects they invested in generally ended in failure, so all the companies that could not raise A or B rounds, or even could not afford to liquidate, were all pulled into the blockchain field and cut a wave. That year, many VCs also successfully recovered a wave of blood, and LPs were also considered to be doing well.

After that wave of industry bubble ended, in fact, there were not many companies left in the industry. Many people found that after issuing coins, there was no income, and the investors did not care after making money, so they all wanted to open exchanges. Therefore, in those two years, every time the industry held offline activities, the exchange BDs were more than the project parties and the media.

In fact, since 2019, I think the number of CEXs in the industry has never been as high as it was then. How many were there in 2019? I remember a media outlet held an offline conference, and they classified the registration into: project parties, media, exchanges, and developers. As a result, the number of registrations from exchanges was three times that of the others combined.

So, that wave of garbage time was also very boring. Although resonance disks and vortex disks like VDS appeared in mid-19, they collapsed within 3 months, and the little flame that had just started disappeared in an instant.

This also led to that wave of cold winter, and the exchanges that were forced to PVP could only try to develop various new functions. So that year, futures contracts exploded, and basically everyone had a long or short order of BTC in their hands, and various order masters and software were also emerging in an endless stream.

In the end, I and everyone else spent that wave of garbage time in an environment where everyone opened orders. Basically, when we went to meet people offline, no one was not opening orders.

The Collapse of the Lego Group

The third garbage time should be experienced by most of my friends, that is, the second half of 2022 and 2023. During this period, the industry was basically full of bad news every day, and I was also starting a business at that time, which should be my second company.

In fact, when I saw LUNA collapse, FTX closed down, and ETH liquidated, I didn’t feel anything at the time. First, I didn’t hold many assets. Because of my business, I sold my Bitcoin at a high point (around 60,000 US dollars); second, my second round of financing had already been closed, and everyone had literally and verbally agreed to participate, including the investment departments of first-tier exchanges.

But when I really felt that the industry was entering a cold winter, I tried to get everyone to make financing payments. The general feedback I got was: xxx fund was trapped in FTX, xxx investment director was laid off, xxx said that the CFO would not lend money, and the finances were tight. After urging for 2 consecutive months without success (although a few people fulfilled their promises and did give it), I decided to continue and try various self-help methods, such as making small games, outsourcing, and market orders. But no matter how hard I tried, the market would always hit reality. In the end, the employees couldn't stand it. After seeing that there was no money and no salary, they dispersed, and I was forced to enter garbage time.

"You should do less in a bear market." This is what an investor told me afterwards. I think it is true. If I had suspended everything and kept the minimum operation during the market collapse, maybe there would be bullets in the ETF recovery at the end of 23.

That time, I didn’t know how to face the failure of entrepreneurship and how to face investors. Many experienced colleagues said that it was no big deal. At most, people would disappear for a while, but maybe I couldn’t let go of this burden in my heart, so I told every investor that I failed. I still remember that the most impressive thing was that I finished talking to Suji at TG. He might not be very happy that day, and then I was continuously output, and I was also asked to sell the house to make up (but at that time, I had neither a house nor Bitcoin). Starting a business directly made me poor, so today I also suggest that you don’t start a business if you have nothing to do. Of course, my relationship with Suji is still very good later, but I cried that time.

But fortunately, I met the girl I like, and then we went to Japan together. There, I was healed by the environment, and I also met with netizens who I hadn’t seen for 3 years during the epidemic. At the same time, I also found that my health has deteriorated a lot in the past few years of entrepreneurship. All physical examination indicators are very bad, so I spent the following garbage time learning Japanese and organizing my body every day, and occasionally meeting with former investors to discuss the possibility of market recovery.

But looking back, perhaps this is also destined, because the friends who are still rolling in the future seem to be facing bigger problems today, higher valuations, higher financing amounts, higher user expectations, more debts, a worse market, and a tighter gambling deadline.

Low liquidity

The fourth garbage time is now. I believe that many friends are suffering at this time, unless you are having a lot of fun playing Meme and successfully caught up with Hippo, Lucky Cat and Goat, but I believe that most people have not caught up.

Because I have recently fried more than 50 Memes, I only caught up with the Hippo wave. .

The fourth garbage time made me see a lot more open-minded. First, I am not starting a business (really raising a team). I think this kind of business is beyond my ability. My friends who are still starting a business have also significantly reduced the number of employees compared to the previous two years; second, I am in a new environment. Yes, I later moved to Japan and became a small resident in the suburbs of Tokyo. I found that this place is similar to Singapore and Hong Kong. They are both good connections between Eastern and Western practitioners. I can meet colleagues from different countries every week and have a cup of coffee and chat together.

But in this garbage time, each of us knows what happened, that is, the copycat market, that is, the real circle, there is no real new users and liquidity.

You may think about TON? What about Line? But their effects are not very lasting. In fact, judging from the information feedback from market makers and exchanges, these converted users are not many, and they still cannot stop exchanges from continuing to lay off employees.

So… stop, yes, stop, don’t toss, continue to do your best and watch this market, learn Japanese and English, then exercise, read articles, and then wait for the arrival of 2025, and prepare for new narratives.

Believe me, maybe one day when you are bored sitting in front of the computer, the bull market will come quietly, and at this time, you will know more languages, learn more tools, or know more people, they may help you inadvertently, and you will also help him.

In the blink of an eye, another week has passed. The autumn weather has brought many new scenery. In short, I hope you can also spend this boring garbage time and improve yourself.

AB Kuai.Dong

October 25

Written at home in the suburbs of Tokyo.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.