Trump's Ascendancy Boosts BTC to Break $100,000? A Detailed Analysis of Cryptocurrency Market Perspectives Before the U.S. Election Concludes
The probability of Trump's victory has increased, and the cryptocurrency industry may soon welcome a wave of positive news in the short term.
Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
As the U.S. election draws to a close, the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, which is greatly influenced by U.S. political and economic factors, has become a focal point of recent market attention.
Will Bitcoin's price successfully break new highs? Will Ethereum's price continue to remain weak? Will the Solana ecosystem's meme coin craze continue? Can altcoin markets gradually warm up? In this article, Planet Daily will organize and analyze the current views on the U.S. election and the cryptocurrency market for readers' reference.
Latest Polls: Trump Temporarily Leads, Harris Follows Closely
Overall, Republican presidential candidate Trump currently has a slight lead in election support, but the advantage is small; Democratic presidential candidate and current U.S. Vice President Harris is slightly behind.
Brief Analysis of U.S. Election Rules: 270 Electoral Votes are Key
According to U.S. election rules, the 50 states have a certain number of electoral votes, totaling 538 nationwide. The candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes will win the election. Except for two states (Nebraska and Maine), all states adopt a "winner-takes-all" rule, meaning that once a candidate receives the majority of votes in that state, they will receive all of that state's electoral votes. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the campaign focus usually falls on about a dozen battleground states, known as "swing states."
Historically, the key to determining victory in U.S. elections has been seven "swing states," which together account for 94 electoral votes, and their results will determine who occupies the presidential seat.
Latest Polls: Trump's Support Rate Reaches 52%
The latest poll shows Trump leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump for president.
Previously, reports indicated that Trump led Harris by 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll.
In a recent poll conducted by the Financial Times, Trump outperformed Harris on U.S. economic issues.
The cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket's latest betting information shows Trump's winning probability at 60.7%, while Harris's is at 39.4%.
According to the well-known U.S. political election website RCP's official information , the predicted combination of Trump/Vance is expected to secure more key votes in swing states, potentially resulting in 312 electoral votes and ultimately winning the election.
Predicted Results of the U.S. Election Ballot Box
Market Views: Trump's Election Probability is Highly Correlated with Cryptocurrency Prices
Previously, Monad's growth lead Intern stated that the curve of Trump's winning probability on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with Bitcoin's price movements.
The chart selected data from March to October this year
QCP Capital previously pointed out in a report that as Trump's chances of winning increase, the market expects his cryptocurrency policies to be more favorable than Harris's, further enhancing the positive correlation between cryptocurrency assets and Trump's victory.
As Galaxy Research previously analyzed, although Harris is more favorable towards cryptocurrency policy than current President Biden, she is still far behind Trump in market perception. After all, Harris promises to improve the regulatory environment for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry but takes a more cautious stance on issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, while Trump supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect self-custody rights.
Bitfinex Alpha's research report also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and Trump's election probability has strengthened, as investors assess the potential impact of a Republican victory on future cryptocurrency regulations, making the cryptocurrency market more sensitive to the U.S. election. Additionally, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and futures contracts has surged to a historical high of over $40 billion, reflecting increased speculative activity, indicating that the current price movements are largely driven by leveraged futures positions rather than spot market demand.
Key Figures Behind the Candidates: Musk Donates $75 Million, Gates Quietly Donates $50 Million
The U.S. presidential election naturally involves not only political choices but also various aspects of the U.S. economy. The key to victory lies in support in terms of funds, resources, and momentum. By examining the "key figures" behind Trump and Harris, we may gain insight into the preferences in the U.S. political and economic landscape.
Musk: The "First Person" to Rally for Trump
Previously, according to documents from the Federal Election Commission, Elon Musk donated $75 million to a political action committee supporting Trump. Moreover, last Thursday, Musk campaigned for Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania; subsequently, he called on Pennsylvania voters to express their support for Trump through various campaign signs and announced at an event that from that day (October 19) until November 5, Election Day, he would randomly distribute $1 million to a registered voter in Pennsylvania who signed the "America Political Action Committee (America PAC)" petition. The first winner was announced that day.
It must be said that Musk has "contributed money, people, and effort" to Trump's campaign, and it's no wonder Trump previously stated, "Thank you, Elon Musk, for giving me the best support."
Bill Gates: Donated Approximately $50 Million to Harris's Campaign Organization
Former U.S. billionaire Bill Gates, who has long distanced himself from politics, recently privately stated that he donated approximately $50 million to the nonprofit organization Future Forward, which supports Vice President Harris's campaign. This donation was originally intended to be secret. A person familiar with Gates's thoughts revealed that this year, in private conversations with friends and others, he expressed concerns about the prospect of Trump being re-elected, although he emphasized that he could work with any candidate.
Billionaire Bill Ackman: Will Help as Much as Possible if Trump is Elected
Billionaire Bill Ackman stated that Harris and Trump are like the best candidates in the world, making it difficult to choose because they are both outstanding. If Trump is elected president, many very capable businessmen will want to join this government, and he will help as much as he can, but he will not become a member of the government. He believes that Trump (if elected president) will not have any problems assembling a very capable team.
a16z Founders: Each Donated $2.5 Million to Trump's Campaign Organization
According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, a16z founders and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to a super political action committee supporting Trump. The two announced their support for Trump in July. Andreessen also donated an additional $844,600 to Trump's campaign team and the Republican Party, which is the federal government's limit.
Billionaire Tim Draper: Bets on Both Sides with Similar Donation Amounts
Billionaire and American venture capitalist Tim Draper previously clarified, "I have donated to both Harris and Trump's campaign teams, and the amounts are roughly equal, allowing my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. Both candidates have the right starting points, and although they will set different paths for America, I optimistically believe that either path will be a positive step. I support both candidates."
Overall, those friendly to the cryptocurrency industry are more supportive of Trump, while individuals related to traditional venture capital institutions tend to hedge their bets or support Harris.
Market Views: Most Believe Trump's Victory is Beneficial for Cryptocurrency, Few Believe the Final Winner Will Promote Cryptocurrency Development
Looking at the current market views, most research institutions and related organizations hold an optimistic attitude towards the development of the cryptocurrency market under Trump's presidency; a small number believe that whether Trump or Harris wins, both will promote further development of the cryptocurrency industry; but there are also very few opinions suggesting that Trump's victory may lead to a decline in the cryptocurrency market.
Traditional Institutions: Optimistic About the Cryptocurrency Market After Trump's Election
A research report from Citibank stated that in the upcoming U.S. election, a comprehensive victory for the Republican Party would be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the broader cryptocurrency market, while a Harris victory and a divided Congress could lead to increased uncertainty in the digital asset industry.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. election. The potential price increase is driven by various factors, including a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and rising probabilities of Trump's victory. Current data shows Trump's winning probability at 56.3%, with the probability of a comprehensive Republican victory at 39%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, the open interest for $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has recently increased, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's mid-term upward potential.
BNP Paribas stated in a report that the results of the U.S. election early next month will determine the near-term outlook for the dollar. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it will be the most positive outcome for the dollar.
Cryptocurrency Enthusiasts: Trump Will Propel Bitcoin Prices to $100,000
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at cryptocurrency asset management firm Bitwise, predicts that if Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Bitcoin's price could rise to $92,000. He stated that based on a chart plotting Bitcoin prices against Trump's winning odds on Polymarket and applying some "merger arbitrage-style probability mathematics," the results show that Bitcoin's price is likely to soar after Trump wins the election. Additionally, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman stated that he believes Trump's victory could push Bitcoin's price to $100,000, "His policies will ignite the cryptocurrency market and drive significant growth across the board."
Augustine Fan, head of SOFA.org, stated, "As attention turns to the results of the U.S. election, the most positive outcome for cryptocurrencies would be Trump's victory, along with a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, making it possible for the Trump-Vance-supported digital asset reform plan to pass in Congress." Jung added, "If Trump's dominance continues and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, we may see new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events."
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analytics firm Nansen, argued that the primary condition for the largest bull market in history in 2025 is Trump's victory in the presidential election.
Neutral Views: Whoever Wins Will Lead to Economic Risks and Market Declines
Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that while some believe Trump's victory would pose adverse factors for economic growth and the stock market, if Harris wins, it could lead to disappointment on Wall Street. Polls indicate that the likelihood of this happening is 50%. However, Wilson pointed out the risks of market declines that could also arise from Trump's victory.
Analysts at trading and financial services firm Presto stated that the U.S. election could trigger a collapse in the bond market, which would also impact other assets like Bitcoin. Jones expressed optimism for Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and Nasdaq stocks in the current risk environment. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democrat Harris have committed to "fiscal extravagance," leading to rising government debt levels, which exacerbates the risk of a bond market collapse. Additionally, the "2024 Bitcoin Bill," currently awaiting Congressional approval, could help stabilize U.S. debt and even stabilize the global financial system.
Neutral Views: Whoever Wins Will Benefit the Cryptocurrency Industry
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at cryptocurrency venture fund Dragonfly Capital, stated, "Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential cryptocurrency IPOs." He noted that while Trump may push the SEC to adopt a more supportive stance towards cryptocurrencies, Harris may "replace Gensler with her own picks, which should lead to more lenient cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S."
David Lawant, research director at cryptocurrency market maker FalconX, stated, "I think the market consensus is that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is likely to perform well. Our analysis indicates that the options activity around the upcoming election shows a clear bullish bias." Republican candidate and former President Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies, leading Bitcoin to be viewed as a so-called "Trump trade." His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, has promised to support a regulatory framework for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration's crackdown on the sector. Non-political factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as contributing to the optimistic sentiment.
Mick Mulvaney, who served as acting director of the Office of Management and Budget under Trump, stated that cryptocurrency is an industry that "breaks the American political mold" because it appeals to both Democrats and Republicans.
Opposing Views: Harris Will Hinder More Cryptocurrency ETF Applications
Two ETF experts stated that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins in the November election, XRP and SOL ETF applications may not yield results. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, "If Harris wins, it won't be approved, regardless of who the issuer is." Some industry experts believe that when asset management giant BlackRock joined the competition to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it significantly increased the chances of SEC approval for them—though it remains unclear how much BlackRock has actually influenced this.
Balchunas stated that if former President Trump wins the election, there will be "a considerable opportunity" for more cryptocurrency ETFs to emerge, regardless of whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and other companies hoping to expand cryptocurrency ETFs beyond BTC and ETH.
Opposition Views: The Trump Trade Hinders Cryptocurrency, Cooling Bitcoin's Rally
As Trump leads Harris in prediction markets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have recently surged. Investors are curbing bets on loose monetary policy because if Trump wins the election, he will implement growth measures on an already strong U.S. economy. With the financial environment tightening relatively, Bitcoin has experienced its first weekly decline in three weeks.
Market analysts at IG Australia stated that stock market sell-offs, a rising dollar, and increasing yields all indicate a tightening financial environment, which is not favorable for cryptocurrencies. Some may point out that the financial environment has been loose from the start, but the speed of tightening is more important. The co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets stated that if Trump wins, it could lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately negatively impacting risk assets. However, expectations of a softening of regulatory oversight of the cryptocurrency industry under the Trump administration should still be a more significant factor.
Conclusion: Bitcoin May Rally After a Pullback Before the Election
Currently, the call for Trump's victory is high. Aside from the cryptocurrency industry's eager anticipation, traditional financial markets are also "feeling the warmth"—according to Barclays report , European stock markets have already reflected the possibility of Trump's victory. The company stated that since early spring this year, a basket of European exporters, particularly those most affected by tariffs, has underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%. To some extent, European stock markets have priced in Trump's victory.
As a "cryptocurrency barometer," Polymarket's data also supports this possibility, with users Fredi 9999, Theo 4, PrincessCaro, and Michie collectively betting $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election; another Polymarket user, zxgngl, recently bet over $5 million on Trump's victory. Analysts point out that the influx of over $35 million in bets may have significantly boosted Trump's winning probability.
Although venture capitalist and Polymarket seed round investor Alex Marinier stated that it is entirely possible that "some big players are making large bets to sway the market"; the founder of prediction market Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, recently argued that these results are accurate rather than manipulated. He stated , "The median bet for Harris is higher than for Trump," with Harris's median bet at $85 and Trump's at $58. An increasing number of people on the platform are betting on Trump's victory, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket corresponds roughly to the number of participants. Based on the current total betting amount of over $2.4 billion on Polymarket, Trump's winning probability may have been clearly demonstrated in this data.
Thanks to a series of cryptocurrency-friendly statements made by Trump previously, combined with the gradual dissemination of various positive news before the election, it may drive the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, to experience a brief pullback before rising again.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
US stocks head into holiday week with history on their side
Let’s take a look at how US equities typically perform this time of year and what we might see in the coming days
Cardano implements first ZK smart contract
Share link:In this post: Cardano has deployed its first zero-knowledge smart contract on the mainnet through the use of the Halo 2 zkSNARKs. The technology allows for secure and private verification of computations with the help of the network without disclosing sensitive information. ADA recently crossed the $1 level and went as high as $1.15 before a 17% drop.
Investors Flock to UltraShort Bitcoin ETF as Post-Trump Rally Cools
Senator suggests how D.O.G.E. can save $2 Trillion of American Tax Payers