Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin hitting $125K with Trump win

Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick has predicted that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could surge to $125,000 by the end of the year if Republicans dominate the U.S. Congress after the November 5 elections. 

Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach $73,000 by Election Day, driven by rising optimism in betting markets favoring a Trump win. 

According to Kendrick, “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win; this is slightly below the all-time high of $73,800 recorded in March.” 

Kendrick’s analysis suggests that a Trump victory would lead to a 4% increase in Bitcoin prices upon announcement, with an additional 10% rise in the following days. 

The analyst’s forecast is based on market indicators and options data, which show a strong correlation between election outcomes and Bitcoin’s potential growth. 

If current Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Kendrick anticipates a short-term dip in Bitcoin prices but projects a year-end target of $75,000. 

Polling data from RealClearPolitics currently places the odds of a Trump win at 59%, while betting platform Polymarket estimates his chances at 75%. 

However, the Polymarket odds have reportedly been influenced by a large unidentified trader who bet over $20 million on a Trump victory. 

Kendrick is not the only market observer forecasting gains for Bitcoin in the event of a Trump win. 

A Bitwise executive predicted that BTC could reach $92,000, while crypto exchange Deribit projected an $80,000 target by the end of November with a Trump victory. 

In contrast, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trend regardless of the election outcome. 

The broader crypto community perceives Trump as more favorable towards digital assets, which could explain the bullish sentiment tied to his potential reelection. 

Nonetheless, notable figures like Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen have backed Harris’s campaign, indicating a divide within the crypto sector over political preferences.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin price was $68,048.40.