Dogecoin (DOGE) Long-Term Holders Could Trigger a Price Drop

Dogecoin (DOGE) holders who have clung to their coins for a significant period might now be preparing to cash in. There has been a notable movement in DOGE coins held for extended periods, suggesting a shift in sentiment among these long-term investors.

In this analysis, BeInCrypto explores the potential outcomes arising from the movements of these previously dormant coins.

Dogecoin’s Age-Consumed Spikes To 16-Month High

On-chain data shows that Dogecoin’s Age Consumed , which tracks the movement of long-held coins, skyrocketed by over 3,000% on Thursday, reaching 1.02 trillion —its highest since June 2023.

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Dogecoin Age Consumed. Source: Santiment

When an asset’s age consumed spikes, it indicates that long-inactive coins or tokens have recently been moved or traded.

Typically, the reactivation of dormant coins signals renewed interest from long-term holders, which many consider a bullish indicator. However, for this bullish trend to play out, the influx of newly circulated coins must be met with sufficient demand to absorb the increased supply. 

Yet, an assessment of the DOGE/USD 12-hour chart reveals that no such demand is present in the market. As of this writing, its on-balance volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling volume in the market, is in a downtrend and is positioned at 507.90 billion. When an asset’s OBV is in a downtrend, it typically indicates that the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. 

Additionally, the meme coin’s negative Balance of Power (BoP) confirms that demand for DOGE is low. This indicator, which measures the strength of buyers versus sellers in the market, is at -0.34 at press time. A negative BoP suggests sellers are in control and attempting to push the asset’s price downward. 

Dogecoin OBV and BoP. Source: TradingView

DOGE Price Prediction: 41% Decline?

As of this writing, Dogecoin’s price sits at the support line formed at $0.13 and may fall below this level as selling pressure strengthens. A decline below this level will shift the meme coin’s focus to the next major support formed at $0.11. If this level fails to hold, Dogecoin’s price may drop to $0.08, representing a 41% decline from its current price.

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Dogecoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, rising demand may absorb the new coins in circulation, holding the $0.13 support level. This could potentially set the stage for Dogecoin’s price to rally toward $0.15.