Standard Chartered: Whether or not Trump wins determines the dollar's rise

On October 24, Standard Chartered estimated that 60% of the dollar's appreciation in October was related to increased bets that Trump would win the November 5 election.

The dollar index has risen more than 3% this month and is on track for its best one-month performance since 2022. Many analysts say a Trump presidency would boost the dollar given the prospect of high tariffs and the ensuing market volatility, which tends to favor safe-haven assets.

Steven Englander, head of global G10 foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered, said the dollar strengthened as the likelihood of a Trump victory rose. This will have a bigger impact on FX than on fixed income.

Englander estimated that the market expects the probability of a Trump victory to be close to 70%, and if this probability is confirmed and Congress is divided, there will be room for the market to take profits. If the Republicans win control of the House and Senate, this could have an impact on the market.