Professionals in the United States banking industry prefer presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump by a small margin, according to recent survey data. But most expect to see his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, take the Oval Office in January. 

American Banker publisher Arizent gathered survey data from 191 respondents working in the US banking industry and found that 59% — about 112 — believed that Harris is the frontrunner. 

However, when asked whether a Trump or Harris administration would be better for the banking industry, 58% of the respondents said they’d be better off under Trump. 

US bankers support Trump but expect Harris victory — American Banker image 0

Bankers are split on the US election outcome. Source: American Banker

Per American Banker:

“Interestingly, 58% of bankers surveyed felt that a Trump administration would be better for their industry and individual companies, against 35% who said Harris would be best for the banking industry. That same perspective was found in similar questions about which election outcome would yield the best outcome for regulatory and policy matters, as well as the country overall.”

Cryptocurrency and regulation

American Banker reported that respondents were faced with a relatively unusual election cycle with both candidates spending little time discussing what their actual policies would be if elected. For the banking industry, this translates into uncertainty. 

Isaac Boltansky, managing director and director of policy research at BTIG, told American Banker that this meant bankers were “forced to do a bit more extrapolating than we are used to.”

Another new twist on the US presidential election cycle has been the increased emphasis on cryptocurrency and questions surrounding the next administration’s regulatory stance on digital assets and related technologies. 

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While cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin ( BTC ) specifically, don’t appear to have played an outsized role in determining predicted vote outcomes in polls, it’s clear the financial industry as a whole has a vested interest in regulatory clarity for the sector. 

Both Trump and Harris have expressed support for cryptocurrency and digital asset technology; however, neither candidate has given a comprehensive overview of their policy or regulatory plans for the sector. 

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Up until recently, many pundits perceived Trump as the crypto candidate. In previous years Trump had disparaged Bitcoin but, during the course of this election cycle, he’s expressly said he wants the US to become the Bitcoin capital of the world.  

While Harris has expressed similar sentiments, her official stance appears to be in support of “AI and quantum computing, blockchain and other emerging technologies .” 

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