Matrixport Market Watch: BTC is blocked from probing the $70,000 pressure level, and the uncertainty of the US election affects multiple markets

In the past week, BTC finally broke through the previous pressure level and entered the range of $67,000-$69,000. On the 21st, it broke through $69,000 and reached a high of $69,519. Although it encountered resistance and fell to $66,571 on the same day, BTC returned to above $67,000 as the market opened positions on dips. As of the publication of this article, the price of BTC fluctuated around $67,185 (the above data is from Binance spot, October 22 at 15:00).

Currently, BTC has a strong resistance level near $70,000, and the price is relatively mild in the short term. However, as the US election approaches, the Trump effect gradually emerges and the market arranges positions in advance, if BTC successfully breaks through the resistance level, it is expected to challenge a new high.

Market Analysis

Several Fed officials spoke out to adjust market expectations for future rate cuts

On October 21, Eastern Time, several Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches to adjust the markets expectations for rate cuts. The three major U.S. indexes reacted differently, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling significantly and the Nasdaq Composite Index turning positive. Dallas Fed President Logan said that the economy is strong and stable, but uncertainty still exists. If the economy meets expectations, it is expected that interest rates will be cut gradually. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that the high inflation problem in the United States is not caused by the labor market, and the pace of interest rate cuts is expected to slow down in the next few quarters. Kansas City Fed President Schmid directly stated that in the face of uncertainty, he hopes to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

Gold spot and futures prices both hit record highs during the session, and the markets risk aversion sentiment was evident

On October 2, Eastern Time, COMEX December gold futures rose to $2,755.40, a record high; spot gold CFD also rose to $2,740.44, a record high. Although both plunged and fell in late trading, the price of gold has risen by more than 30% this year, and the market generally believes that the price of gold will continue to rise.

The continued rise in gold prices is due not only to the uncertainty of the US election and the continued fermentation of the situation in the Middle East, which has led to an increase in market risk aversion demand, but also to large-scale purchases by central banks and US interest rate cuts.

BTC futures notional open interest hits new high, BTC market participation continues to rise

Coinglass data shows that the nominal open interest of USD-denominated Bitcoin futures tracking mainstream exchanges exceeded $40.63 billion over the weekend, setting a new record high. The open interest was 592,000 BTC, the highest level since December 2022. At the same time, the market inflow of BTC ETFs continued to increase. For example, BlackRocks IBIT ETF attracted more than $1.1 billion in funds last week, the strongest performance since March this year.

Suggested Layout

Although BTC and ETH are now close to the key resistance levels of $70,000 and $2,800, there are no major catalysts in the near future, so this weeks market should be dominated by moderate fluctuations. If ETH rebounds strongly again this week, once it breaks through $2,800, it may bring new attention to the crypto market and boost the market.

At the same time, based on the rise in the 10-year interest rate of US Treasury bonds and the price market of safe-haven assets (gold and silver), the market has lowered the average return rate of US stocks in the next ten years, and the US stock market has gradually tended to an independent market of big bull stocks. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in the US election and local geopolitical fluctuations, the probability of black swan events has increased. It is recommended to carefully assess risks and make market layouts. Although Trumps odds have risen sharply, the current poll data is still relatively tense, and investors who plan for the Trump effect in advance need to be cautious.

Under the current market conditions, it is a good choice to use principal-guaranteed structured products to protect principal and interest and obtain currency-based appreciation. Shark Fin or Trend Profit products can obtain relatively good incremental returns on the basis of cost protection if the market trend is judged, which is suitable for investors who are optimistic about the long-term trend of BTC and ETH.

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