The market is preparing for a possible Trump victory

The latest article from 10x Research suggests that the market is preparing for a possible Trump victory, but institutional investors may delay large-scale purchases until the election results are officially confirmed. Betting markets and opinion polls, which historically often underestimate Trump's chances of winning, now indicate that a Republican victory is almost certain. If both the White House and Senate are controlled by Republicans, Trump's policy agenda can be quickly implemented, driving risk assets to surge until higher interest rates begin to put pressure on the market - if he gets elected.

Opinion polls often have biases and are easily manipulated. While some investors might pay attention to platforms like Polymarket where a few big players can skew odds; others may trust polling institutions supporting opposing candidates. However, large-scale traders usually clearly show how they think the election will swing. If these market signals are accurate without error, trades consistent with this sentiment could perform stronger.