Bitcoin ETFs hit $20B milestone as price remains stuck in downtrend

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States reached a significant milestone in net flows, even as Bitcoin’s price remained stuck in a seven-month downtrend.

US-based spot Bitcoin ( BTC ) ETFs crossed $20 billion in total net flows on Oct. 17.

The $20 billion is the “most difficult metric to grow” for ETFs, according to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, who wrote in an Oct. 17 X post :

“Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $20 billion in total net flows (the most important number, most difficult metric to grow in ETF world) for the first time after a huge week of $1.5 billion.”

Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: Eric Balchunas

Despite the continued ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s price has not risen above $68,300 since June. The world’s first cryptocurrency remains in a seven-month downtrend since March, Cointelegraph data shows.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph.

It only took US spot Bitcoin ETFs 10 months to cross the $20 billion net flow milestone, which suggests significant investor interest. In contrast, it took gold ETFs approximately five years to cross this milestone, Balchunas said.

Related: Ether price in 7-month decline amid ‘L1 wars,’ says analyst

Bitcoin ETFs cross $65.4 billion onchain holdings but price remains subdued

Bitcoin ETF inflows started picking up on Oct. 11 after three consecutive days of net negative outflows.

However, Oct. 11 also brought over $253 million worth of cumulative net inflows, marking the start of a four-day winning streak for ETFs.

The US ETFs amassed more than $458 million worth of BTC on Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors data.

Bitcoin ETF flows (US dollar, million). Source: Farside Investors

Thanks to the continued inflows, Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $65.4 billion in cumulative onchain Bitcoin holdings, representing 4.9% of the current Bitcoin circulating supply, Dune data shows.

Bitcoin ETF dashboard. Source: Dune

Related: Trump pump? Bitcoin climbs to 2.5-month high as Trump widens lead

Is Bitcoin’s three-month historic rally still in play?

Some analysts are predicting a three-month Bitcoin rally up to $92,000 starting in October, which is based on historical chart patterns and Bitcoin’s average monthly returns for the fourth quarter.

During Bitcoin halving years like 2024, BTC has historically rallied for three consecutive months following September’s downtrend.

Bitcoin average monthly returns, percentage. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin has averaged 21.47% returns in October, 46.8% in November — historically the best month for Bitcoin price — and 5.4% average monthly returns in December.

During the previous Bitcoin halving year in 2020, the price rose over 27% in October and over 42% in November in a six-month rally that lasted until March 2021.

Magazine: Bitcoin $500K prediction, spot Ether ETF ‘staking issue’— Thomas Fahrer, X Hall of Flame