Trump’s odds of winning now leads 16% over Harris on Polymarket

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming presidential election rose to a 16% lead over Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris on Polymarket as of Tuesday night.

According to the decentralized prediction market platform, the odds of Trump's winning stood at 57.9%, while Harris' chances were at 41.8%. The bet on the 2024 election winner has accumulated over $1.92 billion in volume so far.

For much of last month, current Vice President Harris held the lead on the Ethereum-based platform. Trump regained the top position at the start of this month, and the gap between the two candidates has since widened.

On the other hand, the national poll aggregate from FiveThirtyEight shows that Harris leads the race by an average of 48.5% across traditional polls, against Trump’s 46.1%. Nevertheless, analysts at Bernstein noted that polls historically have underestimated Trump.

In a note to clients, analysts at Bernstein also discussed whether Polymarket could be biased towards the Republican candidate, who has shown stronger support for cryptocurrencies. However, the analysts noted that users were more likely to bet real money on probability than actually reflecting their bias.

Meanwhile, Trump announced Tuesday that World Liberty Financial, the DeFi protocol backed by the former president himself, sold over 610 million tokens in the public sale that started the same morning.

His opponent Harris, who remained mostly silent on matters related to cryptocurrencies, recently said she would support a regulatory framework for crypto that protects Black men who invest and own crypto, as part of a newly released proposal to help build wealth for Black men.