Traditional Polls vs. Prediction Markets: who’s winning 2024?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches in the United States, a striking contrast has emerged between traditional polling methods and prediction markets regarding the race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Currently, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket indicate a significant lead for Donald Trump, with Kalshi assigning him a 55% probability of winning compared to 45% for Vice President Kamala Harris.

This contrasts sharply with national polls, which often show Harris slightly ahead, such as a recent New York Times tracker indicating a 50% to 47% lead for her​.

Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms are more responsive to real-time developments, such as debates and breaking news, allowing for quicker updates on public sentiment.

Thomas Miller, a data science professor, asserts that political betting sites effectively aggregate the “wisdom of the crowd,” which could lead to more accurate forecasts​. A Miller-run website that predicts the outcome of the Electoral College using PredictIt contract pricing currently projects Trump to win by a landslide.

However, skepticism persists regarding the reliability of these markets. Concerns about potential manipulation have arisen, especially following a surge in pro-Trump betting activity. 

Some analysts have noted a series of significant bets favoring Donald Trump, particularly from an anonymous user on Polymarket. Additionally, Elon Musk’s posts on October 7 highlighted Trump’s advantage in prediction markets , potentially motivating other Trump supporters to place their bets. According to Election Betting Odds, a noticeable increase in Trump’s lead occurred around that time.

PredictIt has cautioned that its contract for a Trump victory is nearing the maximum trader limit, which could restrict further trading for bettors​.