Bitcoin could hit $250K in 2025 – Here’s how and why

According to technical on-chain data, Bitcoin is on track to hit $233K, which could come as early as Q1 2025. The long-awaited “Uptober” bull run is finally here, with BTC trading above $65K in the last two days.

In the latest BTC price prediction, X analytics account Bitcoindata21 used the relative strength index (RSI) to estimate six figures for BTC/USD. At present, Bitcoin (BTC) price stands at $65,696, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours. BTC’s value is 5% higher than it was a week ago.

Using standard deviation to monthly RSI, Bitcoindata21 estimates that the current bull market’s peak might be worth around a quarter of a million dollars.

This can be achieved by referencing past highs in monthly RSI readings, which correspond to blow-off peaks in BTC/USD. 

Bitcoindata21 says, “The top-of-the-trend channel for monthly RSI is around 88.6 in Q1 2025 […] if you are expecting it NOT to get hit, then you believe this time is different.”

Such a short deadline is not unusual; as the projection points out, Bitcoin’s past bull markets resulted in quick gains toward macro peaks.

In another post by Bitcoindata21 on X , they point out, “There is plenty of apathy and disbelief in the market right now after a long consolidation. Perfect time for price to rip higher, further than the hive mind believes.”

At present, Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed index stands at 65 – which indicates greed among investors.

Their $250K Bitcoin prediction comes on the back of institutional investors. Bitcoindata21 adds, “Last cycle price went from 10k to 67k in 7 months, largely driven by Grayscale buying 400k Bitcoin. Now we have trillions of trad-fi dollars waiting for FOMO after price discovery and after they realize it’s not a triple top. Oops… they’ll learn the hard way.”

Bitcoin heads into a historic bull run

Before Bitcoin can hit $250K investors are watching for the leading crypto coin to beat its all-time high. However, prices remain locked in a prolonged directionless channel. Now, a lesser-tracked “three-line break chart” suggests a bullish outlook favoring a move to record highs.

BTC’s daily candlestick chart indicates a neutral outlook, as the coin remains caught in a seven-month-long corrective descending channel. This is demonstrated by trendlines connecting highs in March and June to lows in May and July.

Currently, the daily RSI stands at around 62.7 on Oct. 15, per data from TradingView. However, it has not breached the “overbought” 70 mark. 

Trader Mags says that the monthly RSI may exceed 70 and hit extreme values. “Each bull cycle Bitcoin peaks when the monthly RSI enters the extreme overbought zone (above 90),” he told his X followers.

Mags adds, “We haven’t seen that happen in this cycle yet. The monthly RSI still has a lot of room to grow, and if history repeats, the next leg up will be epic.”

Presently, the entire crypto market is up as investors shrugged off mixed responses to China’s stimulus package and a recovery in US equities. The total crypto market cap has risen by approximately 2.2% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.3 trillion.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 5,871.41 on Oct. 14, up approximately 2.6% month-to-date.

The Kobeissi Letter, in an Oct. 14 post on X , notes that “The S&P 500 is up +43% since October 2023 and set to post one of its best 12-month gains in history.”

Meanwhile, investors remain focused on the US Federal Reserve’s decision following a two-day FOMC meeting scheduled for Nov. 6 and Nov. 7.