Uptober or Octover? High Hopes for a Crypto Surge, But Caution Lingers

Key Takeaways

• Broader economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and core PPI, have heavily influenced Bitcoin’s price so far in October.
• October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, but the current performance deviates from this trend.
• The recent shift in U.S. election polls has injected uncertainty into the crypto market.

October has been a rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin , with prices careening between steep declines and dramatic rebounds.

Despite an underwhelming start to the month, the crypto market has mustered a series of impressive rallies, kindling hopes of a broader surge.

Bitcoin’s October Performance

Bitcoin’s price continues to be heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, as evidenced by its recent reaction to the release of U.S. CPI and Core PPI data .

This trend has been consistent for several months, highlighting the strong correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and broader economic indicators.

However, October—historically a bullish month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 22.44% over the past five years—is failing to live up to its reputation. The current monthly candle formation suggests potential downside pressure, deviating from the typical autumnal rally.

Bitcoin has had a mixed October so far. Credit: Giuseppe Fabio Ciccomascolo/TradingView

Uptober is Over?

Bitcoin’s October performance has been a gut-wrenching ride, marked by sudden reversals and sharp turns. The month opened with a jarring 4% drop, with Bitcoin falling from $63,329 to $60,835.

After stabilizing in the following days, Bitcoin embarked on a series of tentative gains punctuated by scattered declines. A flash of optimism on Oct. 4, when the cryptocurrency jumped 2.2%, gave way to a brief but intense sell-off on Oct. 7 and 9.

However, Bitcoin’s resilience was on full display as it clawed back losses and then some, surging 3.6% on Oct. 11 to reclaim lost ground. This marked the beginning of a more sustained upward trend, with the cryptocurrency pushing to a month-to-date high of $64,618.1 by Oct. 14.

That said, if Bitcoin can muster enough momentum to break through the current resistance level, it could yet make a push toward the $65,000 price level, reviving hopes of a more substantial comeback.

Hopes For Surge

October has historically been a positive month for Bitcoin, with prices increasing in eight of the past 13 years.

This tendency for growth during October has earned the month the nickname “Greentober” or “Uptober.”

A closer examination reveals that the rebound in October often follows a September slump, driven by a combination of factors.

These include improved market sentiment, key technical breakouts , increased institutional interest, and a favorable political climate. These catalysts have historically propelled Bitcoin’s price higher during this period.

Bitcoin’s October performance also tends to be especially strong in years following halving events, when the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market is reduced, increasing its scarcity.

For instance, in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin saw notable price increases in October following the halving events earlier in those years. In 2020, the price surge was further fueled by institutional adoption, contributing to a broader bullish cycle.

Although October has shown historical growth patterns, it’s crucial to acknowledge that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, as market dynamics can change rapidly.

External factors, such as shifts in global economic conditions, technological advancements, and changes in investor sentiment, can also heavily influence the price of Bitcoin.

U.S. Election Is Stalling the Bull Run

The recent surge in Kamala Harris’s election polls has injected uncertainty into the crypto market, potentially slowing its growth momentum.

Donald Trump, perceived as a more crypto-friendly candidate , has historically favored easier regulations, allowing the sector to thrive under relatively lenient oversight. In contrast, the Democratic leadership, including Harris, is viewed as embracing a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation.

While not universally anti-crypto, Democrats have expressed concerns about the risks associated with the cryptocurrency market, including fraud, inadequate consumer protection, and environmental impacts from energy consumption.

Harris is leading in election polls over Trump. l Credit: BBC

Moreover, institutional investors, who play a significant role in the growth of cryptocurrency , often respond to such political shifts by adopting a more conservative approach, awaiting clearer policy signals.

A potential shift to a more regulation-focused administration could delay investments and the broader adoption of crypto-related technologies, further contributing to the current slowdown in growth.

The market’s sensitivity to political developments means that polls indicating Harris gaining momentum over Trump could lead to hesitation in the sector until there is more clarity on what her administration’s policies toward cryptocurrency might be.