A widely watched Bitcoin ( BTC ) indicator that signals volatility on cryptocurrency exchanges is approaching its lowest point of the year, similar to what was seen before Bitcoin rallied in 2023.

“The current indicator levels are similarly low, which could signal that the market is preparing for the next upward trend,” CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler claimed in a Sept. 30 analyst note .

Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple nears yearly low, signs of 'upward trend' image 0

Bitcoin short-term volatility mirrors March 2023. Source: CryptoQuant

Adler noted that it’s “noticeable” how Bitcoin’s low exchange flow multiple values were “observed before the rally in 2023.” In April 2023, Bitcoin saw a 46% rise over the previous 30 days, reaching $30,312.

Bitcoin price volatility is decreasing

He continued that Bitcoin short-term inflows and outflows—those held for under 30 days—are significantly lower than long-term flows, signaling “decreased volatility” in Bitcoin exchange flows. This could also suggest that Bitcoin investors are holding, expecting to profit from a potential price increase shortly.

Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple nears yearly low, signs of 'upward trend' image 1

Bitcoin is down 3.22% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in a Sept. 30 X post that there are “increasing short positions behind today’s decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.”

“Open Interest increased as prices fell,” Moreno stated.

Bitcoin OI stays elevated, raising concerns

Meanwhile, crypto market analyst Maartuun opined , “Bitcoin is in that awkward spot where the price is down, but open interest isn’t.”

“This setup guarantees more fireworks,” Maartuun added.

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures open interest was $35.15 billion at the time of publication.

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Cointelegraph recently reported an analyst’s take that there is uncertainty around the chances of Bitcoin reaching six figures by year-end. However, returning to its current all-time high remains within reach.

“The window to get to $100k by the end of the quarter looks very tight to me. You would need everything to go right from this point on and you simply can’t be sure that is going to happen,” Swyftx lead crypto analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.

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On Sept. 30, Bitcoin’s price took a 3.22% hit over the past 24 hours, trading at $63,531, according to TradingView data .

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.