The Bitcoin ETFs were a huge success. Can Ethereum do the same?

The incredible success of the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year has put the Ethereum ETH -0.0029% ETFs — launching today — in an interesting position.

The Bitcoin ETFs were widely seen as the most successful ETF launch of all time. Both in terms of their combined volumes and flows on the first day, as well as their continued high metrics over the following months. Now while the Ethereum ETFs are likely to capture just a fraction of the flows that their counterparts saw, they could still be one of the most notable ETF launches ever.

“A normal ETF trades — if it’s lucky — a million dollars on the first day. That’s a successful launch for a normal ETF,” said Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. “These will blow that away.”

Balchunas argued that the Bitcoin ETF launches were like an anomaly in physics. Compared to such an anomaly, it's unsurprising the Ethereum ETF launches will probably be underwhelming. But he argued in their own right, they will still be a big success story — even if they don’t capture the same levels that the Bitcoin ETFs saw.

“It’s almost like you wouldn’t live your life constantly comparing yourself to Bill Gates’ fortune. It would be like the multimillionaire bumming out because Bill Gates has $140 billion,” Balchunas said.

When the Bitcoin ETFs launched, they saw $300 billion of cumulative trading volume in the first six months, peaking at $61.5 billion in AUM (including Grayscale, which had $28 billion of AUM on day one). Balchunas said that, if they’re lucky, the Ethereum ETFs should see 20% of the volumes and assets that the Bitcoin ETFs saw.

Balchunas also noted there is one interesting subplot to the imminent launches. Grayscale is offering an Ethereum Mini Trust and in theory, its low cost should attract some demand. But if that doesn’t happen, it could be informative.

“It will tell us if there’s any reputational damage to the Grayscale brand,” Balchunas said. “If it doesn’t get fresh new flows, we’ll know the brand was damaged. It has the lowest fees, it should get assets.”

Like the Bitcoin ETFs, the Ethereum ETFs have also put forward competitive fee structures , with many offering discounts in the early days. That's because even if these ETFs won't hit the same levels as the Bitcoin ETFs did, they're still absolutely worth contesting for.