Will Crypto Markets Keep Falling as $1.2B Bitcoin Options Expire Today?

There are around 18,000 Bitcoin options due to expire on April 5 with a notional value of $1.23 billion.

However, today’s expiry event is much smaller than last week’s whopping $15 billion end-of-quarter crypto options expiry.

Moreover, markets have been weaker this week, with total capitalization falling 5% as $150 billion left the space.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Today’s tranche of expiring Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.64. This means there are about a third more call (long) contracts expiring than puts (shorts).

Additionally, the max pain point of today’s batch is $68,000, which is about $500 higher than current spot prices.

There is also around $900 million in open interest at the $70,000 strike price, indicating that the bulls are confident of a return to those levels. Additionally, there is $840 million in OI at a strike price of $100,000, according to Deribit. However, BTC appears to be in retreat at the moment.

Crypto derivatives tooling provider Greeks Live reported that the volatile week has ended in a short-sellers win before adding that selling calls have been the most dominant trade of the week, “with implied volatility across all major terms showing a significant decline.”

“Bitcoin is coming off the halving with sentiment support, other coins have fallen into a short-term bear market, and ETF inflows have slowed recently as the market is digesting the premium from ETFs.”

5 April Options Data
18,000 BTC options to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.64, Maxpain point of $68,000 and notional value of $1.2 billion.
270,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.38, Maxpain point of $3,400 and notional value of $890 million.
Today is… pic.twitter.com/QpoQH0i6Bw

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) April 5, 2024

In addition to the Bitcoin options, around 270,000 Ethereum contracts are due to expire. These have a put/call ratio of 0.38, a max pain point of $3,400, and a notional value of $890 million.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets went up yesterday evening, with the total cap reaching $2.67 trillion, before the trend reversed and most assets erased the gains. Zooming out shows that markets have been consolidating around this level since early March.

Bitcoin went as high as $69,000 after its mid-week dip but dropped back down to $66,500 during the Friday morning Asian session. The asset remains around 10% down from its all-time high.

Ethereum prices were not as buoyant, but ETH is still down by 1% to $3,275.

The altcoins were a mixed bag with significant gains for Toncoin (TON), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Ethereum Classic (ETC), and notable losses for Solana (SOL), Internet Computer (ICP), and Aptos (APT).