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 according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the probability of a rate cut in January has now fallen below 18%.

BlockBeats News, December 29, The Kobeissi Letter reported that while gold, silver, and other precious metals have surged in this round, bitcoin has remained range-bound. As of this weekend, the bitcoin-to-silver ratio has dropped to 1104, the lowest level since September 2023. Since May, as silver has significantly outperformed bitcoin, this ratio has fallen by 67%. Meanwhile, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped to 19, the lowest level since November 2023, and is down 50% compared to January. In contrast, at the bear market lows in 2022, these two ratios were 680 and 9, respectively.

According to TechFlow, on December 29, Nano Labs founder Kong Jianping posted on social media stating, “The underlying logic of taking over bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental change.” The path of previous bull markets was very clear: geeks → programmers → retail investors → mainstream finance. Each round of price increase was the result of cognitive diffusion. But after 2024, ETFs and institutional holdings have changed the supply and demand structure. Some BTC is being converted into dormant assets that do not participate in short-term cycles, just like gold entering the central bank system. When chips are locked up for the long term and there are fewer and fewer sellers willing to repeatedly enter and exit, the price driver will shift from “cognitive diffusion” to “supply contraction.” The next round of price increases may no longer require new narratives or beliefs.”